USD/JPY has been in a steady uptrend since mid-2025, rising from the 142 level to test the key psychological and technical resistance area at 160,000. The area is of historical importance as it was the supply area that previously caused price declines. With the Bank of Japan increasingly talking about the yen’s weakness, any sustained break above the 160 mark could trigger the risk of market intervention.

100-day simple moving average:

The moving average eventually settled at 157.301, which represented bullish support for several months, but turned into resistance after prices fell below it for the first time since early 2026.

Relative Strength Index:

The index has yet to register a reading below the 30 level, suggesting that it may continue to fall before a rebound signals, similar to the behavior of the index when it fell below the 30 level in February 2026 before the recovery wave began.

Basic appearance:

The Bank of Japan has gradually begun to tighten monetary policy and narrow interest rate differentials, which have been one of the reasons for the yen’s weakness for many years. Any continued move below the 155,000 level, if not direct intervention, is likely to trigger fresh comments from the Bank of Japan.

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