Market_Vision1 Forex Market Overview for May 2: GBPCHF — TradingView

Good morning guys, a great start to the week. Let’s take a quick look at the most important developments from the weekend to see how we approach the market.

First, there are more positive signs in the Gulf. Frankly, we must admit that the dual pressure program adopted by the United States may have begun to have an effect, although many people found it strange at first.

Over the weekend, more than one reliable source confirmed that Iran had made a peace initiative to the United States. True, Trump rejected it outright, deeming it unacceptable, but what is important here is that Iran itself has begun initiating negotiations. This is a big change in attitude.

Clearly, economic and military pressure through sieges are more effective than direct strikes. Maybe they should start here. Regardless, things will work out, and it’s possible we’ll see a compromise solution that allows oil to flow into the market normally.

Second takeaway: Trump announced a plan on Sunday to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

However, the market did not react strongly to the news, and the specific reasons are not yet clear. There are some major conflicting reports:
Some sources talk about large-scale military involvement and actual insurance of the ships
– Other sources said the issue was merely a matter of guidance and support for shipping and insurance companies

Of course, the difference between the two scenarios is very large, so the market is currently in waiting mode.

If they can really guarantee the passage of even 5 to 10 ships per day, that in itself is a strong positive and may put pressure on oil prices.

At the same time, we are seeing countries begin to adapt:
– Iraq actually started exporting through Syria
– UAE uses Fujairah port to bypass strait

This means the market is trying to adapt to the situation, which could put downward pressure on prices over time.

Therefore, we must be very careful when trading oil today. Any confirmation that navigation has returned to normal could lead to a significant decline.

Of course, Iran announced that it considered these actions a violation of the ceasefire agreement because the situation remained tense.

In this case, it’s better to monitor the market’s reaction rather than try to predict it. The market is by far the clearest indicator.

For other markets:

With a clear sense of optimism:
– Indicators are at a high level
– Bitcoin has returned above 80,000
-Bond yields fall

This could mean that investors have adapted to the situation, or that they expect positive conditions to emerge soon.

As for today’s news:

At the Eurogroup meeting. These meetings are typically quiet, but it is important that we monitor any discussion of new sanctions, particularly on Russian oil, as this could affect market balances.

But overall, I don’t expect them to have harsh words.

Finally, today is a UK bank holiday, which could lead to increased GBP volatility due to reduced liquidity.

Please be careful with the pounds and we will handle the rest of the tools normally.

We will see you at the conference and have a great trading day 👍