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The direction of the XAUUSD/H1 currency pair remains unclear as the price continues to trade within a wide trendline range. Gold is expected to continue trading sideways pending clearer progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations and whether the Freedom Plan will lead to new conflicts.
The exponential moving averages (EMA) across multiple time frames (H4 – H2 – H1) indicate a purely bearish trend, with the 34 EMA below the 89 EMA. However, the current market momentum is insufficient, and investors are waiting for new news on the US-Iran negotiations.
This area (4641 – 4647) is a key resistance level for the upcoming increase; if the price breaks this area, the uptrend will resume. As for the area (4583 – 4590), it is considered a key support level. If the price breaks out of this area, a correction towards lower support is likely.
✅ Discount:
1. Purchase scenario:
– If the price breaks out of the resistance area (4641 – 4647) and closes above it.
– If the price breaks the downtrend line and closes above the 34-hour exponential moving average (H4).
=>The uptrend then continues reaching (466x – 467x) and higher levels (470x – 472x).
=> Note that the area around the entry point (4666 – 4671) has historically been a strong support area, converging with the downtrend structure on the 1-hour timeframe and the downtrend line on the larger timeframe. If price fails to break out, a pullback into the sideways range (460x – 464x) is likely. A complete breakout will continue the uptrend.
2. Sales scenario:
– If the price breaks out of the support area (4583 – 4590) and closes below it.
If price breaks the uptrend line and simultaneously breaks out of the higher low structure, the short-term downtrend will continue to test support at (456x) and above (453x – 454x).
When price breaks out of the support zone (4533 – 4541), downward momentum will build strongly (if the breakout fails, it will resume and continue sideways).
⚠️Note: The market is expected to continue to fluctuate sideways within the trend line channel, waiting for clearer progress in the US-Iran negotiations. It is safer to wait for a clear breakout of important resistance areas before trading in the direction of the trend. In sideways trading, always adhere to stop loss orders – it is safer and more effective to trade proactively.