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Hello traders! I’m Jack Blackwell and I have 15 years of experience analyzing and trading the futures and foreign exchange markets. Below is my technical analysis opinion based on the current XAUUSD chart structure (4-hour and 1-hour timeframes).
✅ 4-hour trend analysis
The larger trend is still down (lower highs and lows following each other). The price fell from 4891 to 4510 and is currently in the correction phase of the pullback phase. The price encountered resistance in the 4630-4650 area and failed to break through the main resistance in the early stage. The downward trend still controls the market. Prices rebounded from the lower edge of the Bollinger Band to the middle of the channel, but the middle of the channel remains resistance.
✅ One-hour trend analysis
The rebound from 4510 to 4646 formed a bullish structure and now the price is consolidating around 4620. The upward momentum is starting to weaken and the price is consolidating at the high level, which may indicate signs of a weakening trend. In the short term, the market is still in an upward trend, but the moving average is beginning to flatten, indicating a potential reversal risk. In the short term, the rebound momentum is weakening, and prices are currently consolidating at a high level.
📊 Major Fibonacci levels:
● 0.236 (≈4600) ✅ Broken but unstable
● 0.382 (≈4655) 🔴Current main resistance level
● 0.5 (≈4700)🔴Strong resistance
● 0.618 (≈4745) 🔴 Trend limit
👉Interpretation of current structure:
● Price fluctuates above 0.236, but has not yet stabilized.
● Currently testing the 0.382 resistance level (the main dividing line).
● If it cannot break through, the rebound is likely to end.
🔴Resistance levels
● 4625–4635 (short-term resistance)
● 4655 (basic resistor)
● 4700 (strong resistance area)
🟢 Support level
● 4600 (Fibonacci 0.236)
● 4565–4550 (structural support)
● 4510 (previous low)
✅ Trading strategy signals
🔰 Sales strategy (main idea)
● Entry points: 4625 – 4655 (Fibonacci selling resistance zone)
● Target level: 4600 → 4565 → 4510
● Logic:
● The 4-hour downtrend remains in effect.
● A rebound into the major resistance area of Fibonacci levels.
● Hourly power begins to decrease.
●Fault situation:
● If the price stabilizes above 4660–4670.
🔰 Buying strategy (short term)
● Entry point: 4590–4600 (near the 0.236 Fibonacci support level)
● Target level: 4630 → 4655
● Logic:
● Fibonacci support continues to consolidate.
● The short-term rebound momentum still exists.
⚠️Trend summary
● If the price encounters resistance at 4655: the rally ends → returns to the downtrend.
● If it falls below 4600: the downward trend accelerates → target 4550/4510.
● If it falls below 4655-4670: the structure turns bullish → the market may enter consolidation or even trend reversal.
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Sincerely,
jack blackwell