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The contrast between the stock index gains and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East seems very surprising as uncertainty remains high. Despite progress on the diplomatic track since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, key indicators of a return to normality are yet to show any signs of calm. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 hit new highs, driven by technology stocks.
In my previous analysis published on TradingView, I riffed on key geopolitical risk indicators to assess stress levels and their potential impact on risk assets in financial markets.
These indicators include oil prices, natural gas prices, urea fertilizer prices, and most importantly, the number of oil tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz every day. They represent the four basic indicators of current geopolitical risks.
The table below shows a list of websites that allow monitoring of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz
Actual time:
As for oil prices, you can see my analysis below, which provides a technical chart of important WTI levels to determine whether a price top has been recorded:
After careful analysis of shipping data in the Strait of Hormuz, it is clear that things are not yet back to normal. After a sharp decline in late February, the number of arriving and departing ships remains structurally below levels before tensions escalated. Although there has been some temporary technical rebound, it is not enough to confirm a sustainable return to normalcy.
In other words, the stock market seems to be ignoring an important fundamental signal right now. This discrepancy between financial assets and real-world indicators raises serious questions. Historically, this decoupling has not been sustainable: either offshore activity has revived significantly, underpinning market optimism, or the market itself has repriced risk by introducing higher risk premiums.
The chart below shows the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz each day. Source: Bloomberg.
It is also worth noting that players in the maritime sector remain highly sensitive to security risks. Shipowners, insurers and charterers are quick to adjust their behavior in response to any, even slight, sign of stress. The continued decline in navigational traffic suggests that these key authorities have not yet seen sufficient improvement to allow activity to return to normal.
In this context, tracking the number of tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz on a daily basis remains absolutely necessary, as this indicator is proactive, realistic and difficult to manipulate.
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