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1. Macroeconomic Outlook
The gold market is currently caught between two opposing forces:
Upside (news driven):
Optimism about the prospects for peace in the Middle East (through Pakistan’s diplomatic efforts) caused WTI oil prices to fall by 3.50%. This reduces inflation concerns and supports a modest recovery in gold in the near term.
Disadvantages (actual data):
The University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level since 1978 (49.8), while long-term inflation expectations continue to rise. This signals weakness in the U.S. economy and could force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high until 2026.
👉 Economic macro conclusion:
It appears that the current rise in gold prices is just a short-term reaction to geopolitical news. If negotiations don’t produce tangible results (as they have in the past), this could become the perfect “bait” – attracting buyers while allocating “smart money” at a higher level.
The gold market is currently caught between two opposing forces:
Upside (news driven):
Optimism about the prospects for peace in the Middle East (through Pakistan’s diplomatic efforts) caused WTI oil prices to fall by 3.50%. This reduces inflation concerns and supports a modest recovery in gold in the near term.
Disadvantages (actual data):
The University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level since 1978 (49.8), while long-term inflation expectations continue to rise. This signals weakness in the U.S. economy and could force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high until 2026.
👉 Economic macro conclusion:
It appears that the current rise in gold prices is just a short-term reaction to geopolitical news. If negotiations don’t produce tangible results (as they have in the past), this could become the perfect “bait” – attracting buyers while allocating “smart money” at a higher level.
2. Technical compatibility (SMC methodology)
We combine macro uncertainty with market structure on the H3 framework to identify potential reversal areas:
District 4,791—Where “News” Meets “Liquidity”
At this level, retail traders influenced by the positive news may interpret this move as a continuation of the breakout.
SMC logic:
distribute:
A series of lower highs indicates that sellers are gradually taking control of the market.
Induction:
The move around 4,726 creates bullish expectations. Smart Money may push the price of the following products to around 4,791:
Buyers withdraw liquidity (sellers activate stop-loss orders)
Execute large sell orders
Markdown stage (target):
After gathering liquidity, the market may enter a strong bearish wave towards 4,600 – 4,590
3. Trading plan
Discipline is key.
POI: 4,791 (Premium areas are ideal)
Admission requirements:
Price reaches 4,791 as liquidity cleanup is implemented
Waiting for confirmation on small timeframes (M5/M15):
CHoCH (Character Change)
or strong downward movement (displacement)
Log in:
Only after confirmation signal appears
Stop Loss (SL):
Highest liquidity peak (~4,810 – 4,820)
Take Profit (TP):
TP1: 4,633
TP2: 4,598
4. Compatibility summary
Macro factors: Peaceful expectations create a “buying news” trap
H3 Structure: Lower Top → Downtrend
10-Year USD Yield: Small decline temporarily weakens the dollar → pushes gold into ideal selling zone
Strategy: Sell when price rejects at 4,791
⚠️Risk warning
This bearish scenario will be invalidated if the price breaks out and closes strongly above 4,820 without any rejection signal.
In this case, the market has confirmed a true breakout and should turn into an uptrend.
What’s your opinion?
Will next week’s GDP data and the Fed’s interest rate decision be the catalyst for a retracement of the liquidity process before the decline?
Share your perspective – let’s analyze it together.
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