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Good morning, guys. Let’s quickly recap what’s happening now.
We are still monitoring the situation in the Strait of Hormuz – what we are seeing is effectively a double blockade. Oddly enough, this topic is “positive” but unfortunately in a negative way. Satellite data shows that ship activity has almost stopped: only one or two ships have passed by in the past 24 hours, not even a tanker.
In short, Iran has once again restricted navigation and no longer allows oil tankers to pass. In contrast, the United States has also tightened measures – in one day, some 29 ships related to Iran trade were forced or directed to return to port.
Frankly, the idea of imposing protocols through this lockdown seems naive. If Iran does not back down after weeks of strikes, it is difficult to expect naval pressure alone to change its stance quickly.
Trump sees things purely from an economic perspective. For him, if financial pressures create problems, then cutting off the other party’s resources may force him to back down. But there is one thing we must pay attention to.
Let us remember the protests in Iran at the beginning of the year. It starts in the market as currencies depreciate and prices continue to rise. What started as an economic need later turned into a political need. The protests were very large and violently suppressed. The official number of victims is more than 4,000, but the actual number is likely higher.
The point is that the economic pressures are already there. There are tensions, conflicts and living crises within. So the idea that stopping the flow of money now would cause the country to collapse quickly seems unrealistic.
Even if that happens, it will take a long time—months, maybe a year or more. Trump simply doesn’t have that time. Instead, he himself was negatively affected by the situation.
I believe that the current timing is not favorable to the United States, but the opposite. Trump operates in a competitive political system, and any economic problems translate directly into political pressure on him.
Look at the situation in the United States. There was a new vote in the Senate yesterday – Democrats are trying to reduce his military powers. In addition, the medium pressure will also increase. And all this before an important election.
Additionally, Republicans began losing important positions. Obvious example: the recent vote on redistricting in Virginia—Democrats won. Virginia is considered a key state in the election. This shows that Republican support is declining.
So the question here is: Who can hold out longer—Iran or the United States? Especially if military action escalates directly. In this case, Iran may have greater affordability.
Market: U.S. oil inventory data was higher than expected – an increase of about 2 million barrels. But if we look closer, we can see that gasoline and diesel stocks are falling.
This means there is crude oil storage, but not enough refining. This indicates a shortage of finished goods. This is evident in price – gasoline prices in the United States have reached about $4.50 to $5 per gallon, and there is tremendous political pressure.
Today we finally have data that has nothing to do with Iran – PMI indicators of economic activity in Europe, the UK and the US. The data will give us a clearer picture of the state of the economy: industry, services and overall activity.
Once the data is released, we will be able to more accurately assess the impact of current tensions and energy prices on the real economy.
The market is currently relatively calm and there are no violent fluctuations.
We are working fine and follow up continuously. We will see you in the meeting 👍
