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In a recent episode of “No Priors” – an excellent podcast sponsored by AI investors Sarah Guo and Elad Gil – Gil explained an exit timing that is no doubt familiar to founders who have spent time with him but seems to be very useful at this time.
For most companies, Gil said, there’s about a 12-month period where the business is at its peak, “and then it crashes.” Companies that take returns are often the ones that watch for the moment instead of assuming that the good times will be good. Lotus, AOL, and Mark Cuban’s Broadcast.com all traded at or near the top, and all were handled by Gil as outfits that foresaw what was coming and wisely pulled the ripcord.
To capture that window, Gil suggested a practical idea: schedule a board meeting once or twice a year to discuss exits. If it’s a vertical calendar, it takes the mind out of the equation.
This is more important now than it would have been a few years ago. Many AI startups exist because the startup models haven’t yet grown into their own category. But many startups – like Deel CEO Alex Bouaziz – have begun to jokingly admit, this won’t last forever.
As Gil said: “When you see the change(s) and the defense and everything else, it’s a good time to ask, ‘Hey, is this my moment?
