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Geopolitical risks have temporarily subsided, and the data is in line with the five-wave pattern! Weekly gold expectations: 4,800 points have become the lifeline for bullish investors, with the target being 5,000 points.
📊【Friday Review】
As of Friday’s close, spot gold rose 0.85% to US$4,831.37 per ounce, briefly touching a high of US$4,891.67 and then retreating slightly. 📈 Despite the large trading fluctuations throughout the week, gold still maintained overall strength. The market repeatedly used strong economic data to balance weak sentiment, which helped gold prices maintain high levels. Silver, on the other hand, has at times underperformed gold due to economic concerns and industrial sector expectations.
🕊️【Geopolitical news supports prices】
News of the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in the early hours of Friday morning ET (assuming the ceasefire remains in effect) ignited risk appetite, pushing gold and silver prices higher while stocks rose. Precious metals are facing some uncertainty as they enter the new week, after experiencing volatile growth expectations, continued inflation, and recession fears.
📅[Next week’s focus: Data and policy outlook]As tensions in the Middle East briefly subsided, market attention returned to economic data affecting the Fed’s policy outlook. The U.S. retail sales data for March released on Tuesday is an important indicator of consumer strength📊. While recent data has shown resilience, markets expect consumption momentum to likely slow. Stronger-than-expected retail sales will put downward pressure on gold prices (as interest rates remain higher for an extended period). Lower-than-expected sales will provide support (as expectations for monetary policy easing increase).
Housing market and hearing: March pending home sales data will also be released on Tuesday, reflecting interest-rate-sensitive pressures on the housing market. Material costs and high interest rates continue to put pressure on the housing market; weaker-than-expected data will reinforce expectations that austerity measures will slow the economy, which will be positive for gold. On the same day, the Senate held a confirmation hearing for the new Federal Reserve Chairman. The market generally expects that easing signals will appear. If true, it will reduce the cost of holding gold and be beneficial to gold prices.
LABOR MARKET WATCH: Thursday’s initial jobless claims are a key window into monitoring the labor market. The current employment situation is characterized by “low recruitment and low layoffs”. If initial orders rise significantly, the market’s assessment of labor market flexibility will change quickly, enhancing gold’s appeal as a recession hedge.
📐[Technical Analysis: Five-wave pattern begins, upward trend confirmed]Gold prices rose from 4783 to 4890 on Friday, thus confirming the end of the fourth wave of callbacks near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 4766 and the beginning of the fifth wave of upward trends. The previous consolidation was waiting for news catalysts, but now it has opened up room for upside. If the weekend news continues to be positive, gold prices will continue their upward momentum early next week.
🔑Main levels:
Short-term support: 4800 – As long as it remains stable, the overall outlook is good.
Short-term resistance: 4890 (10-day weekly moving average), a break above this level could lead to a touch of 4960-4970.
Mid-term goal: gradually reduce holdings after reaching the 5000 level.
📈 The 1-hour chart shows that the Bollinger Band widened upward, and gold prices remained above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. The moving averages are trending higher, the MACD range is expanding modestly, and the KDJ divergence is higher, indicating that the bullish momentum continues. 💪
🎯【Trading strategy for next Monday】
✅ Buying strategy: Buy gold in bulk at the 4800-4810 level, using 20% of the funds. Stop loss is set at 4780, target 4850-4900, and then breakout to 4930.
⚠️Selling strategy: Sell gold in batches at the 4890-4900 level, using 20% of the funds. Stop loss 4920, target 4850-4830, break through 4800 upwards.
👈 Make sure to manage your position size carefully and limit losses; do not hold a losing position. Specific entry and exit points vary based on current market conditions.
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