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XAUUSD H4: Gold prices maintain recovery above support, but buyers still need a clear break higher
Gold is trying to stabilize after its latest decline, with the broader structure of the H4 framework remaining supportive and prices remaining above support. However, the market has yet to fully break out. Buyers are holding on to the fundamentals of the recovery, but the next move depends on whether gold prices can regain the upper resistance area with a stronger push.
basic background
The economic tone is mixed rather than outright bullish.
Hopes for progress on the geopolitical front have curbed some of the defensive demand that had previously driven gold prices sharply higher. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has not collapsed, limiting the precious metal’s positive gains.
This leaves gold in a more balanced environment: larger structures remain supportive, but the market now needs technical confirmation rather than relying solely on headlines.
H4 technical architecture
Overall structure
On the H4 chart, XAUUSD is still trading on the back of its recent recovery after rebounding strongly from its late-March lows. Prices have retreated from recent highs, but the structure remains unbroken.
For now, this looks more like a controlled pullback within a recovery phase than a confirmed bearish turn.
4811: Short-term resistance level
The first major level is reached around 4,811.
This is an area of immediate resistance where gold prices currently struggle to move higher. Any sustained move above this area will strengthen the recovery structure and draw attention back to higher liquidity.
4,657 – 4,580: Main support area
The most important support area remains 4,657 – 4,580.
Buyers will have to defend this sector if they want to keep the current recovery leg intact. As long as prices stay here, gold prices still have room to move higher.
4,497: Deeper support base
Below that level, 4,497 remains a stronger structural basis.
If the market in the area goes down, there are still opportunities for buyers to rebuild. But any outright fall below that level would severely weaken recovery prospects.
5,220 – 5,246: Higher upside target
If buyers regain momentum and reclaim short-term resistance, the next major upside target remains 5,220 to 5,246.
This is the highlighted area on the chart and where gold could once again face a meaningful reaction.
What does the order flow indicate?
Order flow suggests buyers have not lost control, but momentum has slowed.
So now:
Buyers are protecting recovery structures above support
Sellers try to keep prices below recent highs
The next move depends on whether gold prices can hold the correction zone and establish new upward momentum.
Trading scenario
Scenario 1: The support level remains and gold prices resume their rise
If the price stabilizes above 4,657 – 4,580, gold may attempt to move towards resistance again and then towards higher target areas.
Entry Point: Around 4,600 – 4,650 on bullish confirmation
SL: Below 4,540
TP1: 4,811
TP2: 4,900
TP3: 5,220 – 5,246
Scenario 2: Developing a deeper decline
If gold fails to hold current support areas, the market could extend downward to a stronger bottom.
Entry: Below 4,580 points after confirmation of weakness
SL: Above breakout support level
TP1: 4,497
TP2: If selling pressure expands, support will lower
Critical level of monitoring
4,811 → Instant Resistance
4,657 – 4,580 → Major pullback support
4,497 → Main Support Base
5,220 – 5,246 → Higher upside target
in conclusion
Gold remains in its fourth-quarter recovery structure, but buyers now need a more complete breakout of resistance to confirm the next bullish trend. Markets remain supported on current basis, but momentum has become more selective as diplomatic hopes fueled by some demand fears fade.
Lana’s take: This is still a pullback in the recovery structure rather than a clear bearish turn. If buyers defend support levels, gold prices could resume gains. If support is broken, the market may need to correct further to resume upward momentum.