Gold prices ended the week in a sideways trading phase, clearly reflecting the lack of strong institutional participation in the market. A weekend rally, driven by easing geopolitical tensions during the U.S. session, helped prices break out of short-term range and move into the upper demand zone + trendline. However, despite the supportive news, gold continues to suffer repeated rejections in this key area, suggesting that buying pressure remains insufficient to change the broader structure.

From a macro perspective, the market is entering a sensitive stage, and the risk of recession is gradually looming. Under normal circumstances, gold should benefit from this uncertainty, but current price action tells a different story: the positive news failed to create sustained upward momentum, while the downward trend remains sharp and decisive. This suggests that smart money may wait for higher liquidity areas, especially around 49xx-5000, to complete allocations before initiating a larger move to the downside based on the long-term macro outlook.

The trading scenario remains the same. The upper demand zone + trendline (49xx-5000) continues to serve as a key decision zone. If gold fails to stabilize and establish a clear bullish structure here, the likelihood of rejection increases and continues the decline towards the support + Fibonacci zone below. Only a strong catalyst combined with a real influx of capital can push prices decisively above this range. So far, market behavior still favors the distribution phase rather than a true accumulation phase, and downside risks remain dominant on a larger scale.

Lucas Gray Trading Company

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