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classic analysis
Overall trend: Clearly bullish. Price is forming higher highs (H) and higher lows (L).
Support and resistance levels:
Major Resistance: The 4854.63 area (the highest recent price peak).
Key Support: The 4800.63 area (orange line), this is a “role reversal” area, turning from resistance to support.
Price Pattern: We noticed that a flag pattern (bullish flag) formed after the last strong start, indicating the possibility of completion of the advance.
2. Smart Currency Concept (SMC) Analysis
Market Structure: A bullish BOS (breakout structure) appears after a breakout of 4840.
Order Zone (OB): Price is currently based above the strong demand zone (OB-H) defined by the cyan rectangle between 4760 and 4780.
Liquidity: Buy-side liquidity is above the last peak of 4854, while sell-side liquidity is withdrawing from the previous low.
3. Wyckoff analysis
Current Phase: We are in an uptrend phase after the accumulation phase seen in the previous volatility has ended.
Price and Volume: We noticed an increase in volume on the bullish candles, which confirms the strength of the buyers and their control of the trend.
4. Technical indicators
MACD: The indicator shows positive momentum above the zero line, with a positive cross, supporting the continuation of the rise.
Volume: The rising bar on the breakout confirms the validity of a real breakout from the 4800 area.
5. Transaction Management (Trading Plan)
According to the numerical data in the figure:
Entry point: Retest the 4831.74 area or enter directly while maintaining money management.
Stop Loss (SL): Below the strong support area at 4784.35.
The first target (TP1): the previous high of 4854.63.
Second Target (TP2): The extension level is 4880.00.
6. Expected scenarios
Base case: Continue the rise and break above 4854, reaching a new historical target, supported by the current bullish momentum.
Another scenario: If the price makes a strong break above the 4800 level and closes below it, the price may retrace further to the 4714.41 area.
7. Final evaluation
Expected success rate: 75% as volume matches price action and exceeds psychological resistance zone.
Trade Type: Ideal for short-term swing trading (a few days) or scalping with smaller frames (5-15 minutes) in the buy direction only.