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1. Classic analysis
Broader trend: Bearish in the medium term (starting from the 12.20 level), but now entering a consolidation path between the 9.70 and 10.20 levels.
Support and resistance levels:
Key support: 9.60 – 9.70 area (near all-time lows).
Key resistance: 10.20 area (upper limit of current crossover range).
Price Pattern: A rectangular pattern is currently forming, indicating confusion among sellers and buyers, waiting for a breakout to confirm the upcoming trend.
2. Smart Currency Concept (SMC) Analysis
Market Structure: After a series of LLs (lower lows), price made a minor CHOCH (Characteristic Change) upward move within a consolidation range.
BOS (Breakout Structure): We note that the recent breakout of the small high inside the box is slightly bullish for BOS.
Order Block (OB): There is a completely untested order block (bullish OB) near the 9.80 – 9.85 levels.
Liquidity: Buy liquidity (BSL) is above highs of 10.20, while sell liquidity (SSL) is below equivalent lows of 9.70.
3. Wyckoff analysis
Current stage: The price is in the accumulation stage. The blue shaded area in the image shows this range.
Spring: A simple false breakout of the low (closing the position), followed by a rapid rebound, indicating the end of the absorption phase.
Volume: We note that volume decreases on the dip and gradually increases on penetration attempts, which supports the accumulation case.
4. Technical indicators
MACD: Showing a positive crossover above the zero line and rising histogram, indicating increasing upward momentum.
RSI: It is moving in the central zone (around 55-60) which provides good upside before reaching the overbought zone.
5. Managing the proposed transaction
Based on current data, trades tend to be positive if they remain above support:
Ideal entry point: after an hour of breakout of the 10.15 level and a close above it, or to buy from the demand area of 9.90.
Stop Loss (SL): Close below the 9.70 level (breakout of the last low).
First target (TP1): 10.60 level (previous spread area).
Second target (TP2): 11.20 level (key supply area).
6. Expected scenarios
Base case (70%): Breakthrough of the Wyckoff Zone cap at 10.20 and a move towards the above target on the back of positive MACD momentum.
Alternative scenario (30%): Failure to break through the resistance and re-break the 9.70 level means completion of the downward journey (Markdown) to lower levels.
7. Final evaluation
Transaction success rate: 65% to 70%.
Trade Type: Great for swing trading in the near to mid-term as we are at the beginning of forming an ascending bottom.