The market awaits clarity on the situation in the United States and Iran, XAUUSD maintains structure

Gold continues to trade within a clear ascending channel, maintaining a constructive upward structure despite short-term consolidation around the 4800-4830 area.

Market background

Recent developments suggest that an agreement is more likely than not, despite major differences between the United States and Iran over their uranium enrichment programmes. These ongoing negotiations keep geopolitical risks in a state of “managed uncertainty” — not strong enough to trigger aggressive safe-haven flows, but still strong enough to prevent a sharp decline in gold prices.

At the same time, the market is balancing modest USD stability with ongoing macro uncertainty, which explains the current sideways bullish behavior in prices.

Technical structure

From a technical perspective, gold prices remain within an uptrend channel, forming higher lows. The latest move shows the price pulling back slightly after testing the 0.786 Fibonacci area (~4822) and interacting near minor resistance.

Key points:

Price remains above 4800, suggesting buyers are still defending the structure
The 4757 buy zone (Fibonacci + Demand) remains the main support
Bullish liquidity stabilizes around 4870-4900, in line with previous highs

This suggests that the current move is more of a controlled consolidation than a reversal.

critical level

Current price: ~4800–4830
Live support: 4800
Strong buy zone: 4757
Resistance/Liquidity: 4870–4900

Scenarios and Forecasts

My preferred scenario remains bullish continuation.

In the short term, gold prices may continue to consolidate or retest the 4800-4757 support area. As long as this area holds, the market may build momentum towards another move towards 4870, with liquidity likely to be a target.

Confirmation of a break above 4870 could support continued gains towards the upper border of the channel.

But if the price falls below 4757, the structure will weaken, opening the door for a deeper pullback.

in conclusion

Gold is currently in the stalled phase of its uptrend, supported by technical structures and balanced macro sentiment. The market is awaiting clearer direction from geopolitical developments, but until key supports are broken, a buy-on-the-dip strategy remains advisable.