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XAUUSD D1: Gold maintains overall bullish structure, but support response remains to be seen next week
Entering the new week, the overall daily structure of gold prices is upward, but the price has not yet fully entered the pulse expansion stage. The chart shows that the gold dollar continues to trade above key structural support areas as buyers attempt to protect the recovery path to higher liquidity.
The key question next week is not whether gold prices still have upside potential in the big picture, but whether buyers can continue to defend the current base of support strongly to maintain momentum and push gold prices back into higher premium territory.
basic background
The macro backdrop remains supportive for gold, but not infinitely so.
Renewed optimism about Iran’s diplomacy led to a weaker dollar, helping gold once again attract stronger buying interest. At the same time, uncertainty about the Fed’s next interest rate trend has also reduced support for the U.S. dollar, creating a more positive environment for the gold dollar.
However, the bullish status is not fully open. Inflation risks related to instability around the Strait of Hormuz still prevent the dollar from collapsing further and are one of the reasons why gold prices have failed to move in a straight line. In other words, the broader backdrop is supporting gold, but the market still needs technical confirmation on the next expansion move.
D1 technical structure
Overall structure
On the daily chart, gold prices remain within a broader bullish framework after reacting strongly to lower support areas. Even after the recent pullback, the price remains above a key structural bottom near 3,920, keeping the higher time trend intact.
The current structure suggests gold is in a rebuilding phase rather than a collapse phase. As long as the market continues to form higher support above lower bases, the path to another rally remains clear.
4,380: Main structural support
The first major level to watch is 4,380.
This is the most important short-term support level on the chart and the current line that buyers need to protect. If prices continue above this area, gold could set up another recovery move and continue higher within a broader bullish structure.
If this level is decisively broken, the daily structure will weaken and the market may slide towards deeper support areas.
4,750 – 5,050: Moderate Recovery Zone
The next bullish area to watch is around 4,750-5,050 points.
This is the first meaningful recovery zone where prices need to stabilize if buyers are to regain stronger momentum. Continued moves in this area would significantly improve the structure and confirm that the current recovery is more than just corrective.
5,556 – 5,633: Key bullish targets
Looking upward, the chart clearly identifies the 5,556 – 5,633 area as the next major target area.
This is the upside area and major upside target if current support holds. If gold prices reach this area, it would confirm that buyers have fully regained control of the broader daily structure.
3,920: Further selling of liquidity
Below the market, 3920 remains an area of deep liquidity sell-off.
This is the largest structural support, and if current support fails, this area will most severely test the broader long-term bullish framework.
What does demand flow indicate?
On the longer time frame, order flow remains in favor of buyers, but the market is now at a support point that needs to be cautiously respected.
So now:
Buyers still hold the overall structure above 4,380 points
The market still has the ability to form a new upward trend
The most obvious upside continuation would occur if price starts moving away from support with stronger momentum
This leaves the weekly outlook constructive but still dependent on how prices react around the current base of support.
Next week’s trading scenario
Scenario 1: Support continues and gold prices continue to rise
If gold prices continue to hold the 4,380-point area and there is a stronger bullish reaction, the market may extend further into recovery territory.
Entry point: around 4,400 – 4,450 after confirmation of rise
SL: Under 4,300
TP1: 4,750
TP2: 5,050
TP3: 5,556 – 5,633
Scenario 2: Decline before recovery
If prices fail to move higher immediately, gold may first re-touch support before trying to move higher again.
Entry: Bullish reaction based on support levels
SL: Below local low
TP1: 4,750
TP2: 5,050
Situation 3: Breaking below support level
If gold prices settle decisively below 4,380, the offsetting structure will weaken and prices may shift downward towards deeper liquidity.
Entry: Below 4,380 after confirmed breakout
SL: Above breakout support level
TP1：4,100
TP2: 3,920
critical levels of monitoring
4,380 → Main structural support
4,750 – 5,050 → Moderate Recovery Zone
5,556 – 5,633 → Key Bullish Targets
3,920 → Further selling of liquidity
in conclusion
Going into next week, gold still maintains a constructive daily structure. The broader backdrop remains supportive as dollar weakness and geopolitical uncertainty continue to support demand, but the market will still need to confirm prices by defending support and extending upward momentum again.
Lana’s Weekly View: As long as gold remains above 4,380, the broader bullish structure remains in place, with another push towards 5,050 next week still favored, and possibly 5,556 – 5,633 if momentum builds.