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1. Fundamental analysis (fundamental drivers)
The geopolitical and macroeconomic backdrop has put tremendous pressure on gold prices:
Geopolitics: The U.S. threat to close the Strait of Hormuz sent WTI oil prices to $105, boosting risk aversion but also raising inflation concerns.
Monetary policy: U.S. CPI (March) reached 3.3%, extinguishing hopes that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates. Rising bond yields are the biggest obstacle to precious metals’ recovery.
2. Market structure
From a Smart Money Concept (SMC) perspective, we see signs of significant changes in price behavior:
Market Structure: After a strong uptrend, CHoCH (Character Change) occurs. The market is no longer purely bullish and has entered a distribution phase.
Liquidity: The 4,767 – 4,794 area contains significant buying liquidity (equal top). This is the area that market makers typically target before reversing.
Fair Value Gap (FVG): There is an area of large price imbalance at the 4,670 – 4,700 level. According to the algorithm, there is a high probability that the price will return to fill this area.
3. Transaction scenario
📉 Sales Scenario (High Priority – High Probability)
Conditions: Push price to the 4,770 – 4,790 area to sweep away liquidity from the old highs.
Confirmation: False breakout signal or CHoCH occurs on small time frames (M5/M15).
Attendance: 4,770 – 4,790
Stop Loss (SL): Above 4,805
Take Profit (TP): 4,720 (TP1) and 4,680 (TP2 – Full FVG).
📈 Purchase scenario (trend continuation)
It only needs to be considered if the H4 candle closes decisively above 4,800, with a long body and suddenly high trading volume. The goal will be the highest peak in history.
⚠️Important Tips
The market is located in the trap area. Entering an order in the middle of the range (around 4,730 – 4,750) is very dangerous as it can sweep in from both sides.
Discipline: Only trade when price reaches the area of interest (POI) and there is a clear confirmation signal.
💡 What do you think in this situation? Will gold fill FVG first or break through the 4800 top? Please leave your comments below! 👇
#XAUUSD #GoldAnalysis #SMC #Price_Action #Trading_Strategy
