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1. Classic analysis
Overall trend: Clearly bearish. Prices are trading below a downtrend line extending from the November 2025 peak, confirming the dominance of selling forces.
Support and resistance levels:
Main resistance: 19.77 area (previous entry point broken).
Current support: 15.17 area, which is the expected historical bottom (TP5).
Price pattern: The price is running within a sharp downward channel and has repeatedly failed to break through the moving average, indicating that “price cuts” are still continuing.
2. Smart Currency Concept (SMC) Analysis
Structural Break (BOS): A structural break occurred at the 18.00 and 17.00 levels, turning the previous area into a supply zone.
Liquidity: There is selling liquidity (seller liquidity) below the current bottom of 16.07, and price is currently being attracted towards the 15.17 level to withdraw this liquidity.
Fair Value Gap (FVG): There are no bullish buying gaps; instead, the path is filled with downside gaps, confirming the strength of the downside momentum.
3. Wyckoff analysis
Current stage: Markdown stage (active combination). The price has passed the distribution stage from October to November and is currently in an accelerated decline stage.
Relationship between price and volume: rising volume was observed at the long red candle, which confirms that the decline was supported by actual selling and not just an unexpected correction.
4. Technical indicators
RSI: The current value is around 40.12, which means there is room for further decline before reaching the oversold zone (30).
ADX: The value is 32.6, indicating a very strong trend.
Market Bias: The dashboard shows a short bias of 86%, while the long bias is only 14%.
Moving Average: Price is below the moving average and an EMA cross is a bearish signal.
5. Transaction and scene management
According to the numerical data on the screen:
Base case (Bearish): The decline continues targeting the following levels:
Current target (TP4): 16.09 (almost reached).
Next target (TP5): 15.17.
Pivot Point for Buyers: There is currently no buy entry signal; “Status: Waiting”. Any bounce back to 17.93 is seen as an opportunity to reduce positions or sell rather than buy.
6. Final evaluation
Success rate for downside scenarios: 85%, attributed to the strength of the trend and the ADX indicator.
Transaction type: downward shock, or very cautious scalping, with weak intraday rebound.
Tip: Price is currently in the “Chaos Zone” close to support, but there is no evidence yet that the signature (CHOCH) has turned bullish. Follow the “Sniper Mode” system instructions to wait (WAIT).
