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Basic bullish logic (bullish support)
📈Comprehensive upward support, multiple factors support gold prices
🔴 1. The risk of a breakdown in the Middle East negotiations is huge, and the demand for hedging may be ignited at any time.
⚠️The fundamental contradiction between the United States and Iran is irreconcilable: Iran refuses to give up its nuclear program, and the United States refuses to relax sanctions; Israel continues to escalate the conflict, and Iran promises to respond. Once negotiations break down and conflicts resume, aggressive buying will appear below the 4700⬆️ level, and gold prices will quickly rise above the 4800⬆️ level. The safe-haven premium cannot disappear completely✅, providing the strongest support for gold.
🏦 2. The central bank’s historical configuration limits deep corrections
📊 It is an important signal that the gold reserves of global central banks exceed US dollar reserves🎯. China and the Eurozone continue to increase their gold holdings📈, and central bank purchases are concentrated in the 4650-4700 range🎯. Abandoning the U.S. dollar is an irreversible process in the long term 🔒, which will strengthen gold’s status as the standard not pegged to the U.S. dollar, making it almost impossible to fall below 4600❌.
Inflation is a supply shock, and the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates
The rebound in CPI in March was mainly due to the shock in oil prices in the Middle East (supply side)⛽, rather than an increase in domestic demand. Powell said he would “ignore short-term supply shocks” 🗣️ because high interest rates are coming to an end 🛑 and real interest rates are likely to rise below 4.5% 📊, keeping the cost of holding gold under control✅. The rate cut is only postponed, not cancelled.
📊 4. The bullish technical structure remains unchanged; the current decline is a natural correction.
✅ The weekly chart shows three consecutive positive weeks 📈 and the mid-term ascending channel has been completed 📊. This week’s pullback from 4801 was profit taking after a sharp move 💰, not a trend reversal ❌. The support level 4720-4730 has been tested many times🧪, and buyers still have enough power to launch a counterattack after the pullback🔄.
