XAUUSD by Lana_M2 — TradingView

XAUUSD H4: Gold continues its recovery, but the next breakout still depends on increased liquidity

Judging from the H4 chart, gold maintains a recovery structure, with buyers continuing to defend recent support levels after falling sharply in March. The rally remains valid for now, but the market is heading towards a more important decision-making area where momentum needs to be built.

basic background

The overall properties of gold are relatively stable.

Gold prices in India were largely unchanged, indicating that even if there is currently no malicious influx into safe markets, physical demand remains strong enough to support the market. This kind of price action generally reflects a market that is carefully balancing the need for recovery, rather than panicking.

This is important for XAUUSD as flat zone pricing generally supports the idea of ​​gold consolidating higher rather than losing the entire structure.

H4 technical architecture
Overall structure

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD has rebounded significantly from a lower base and is now trying to stabilize above the current recovery axis. The structure is no longer in the hostile bearish phase we saw in late March, but buyers will still need to call back higher liquidity to confirm the continuation of the broader uptrend.

At this point, the market moves from a rebound into a resolution area.

4,649: The fulcrum of the current recovery

The first level to watch is 4,649.

This area acts as an immediate pivot for the current move. As long as prices continue to hold above or near this level, the rally remains constructive and buyers remain in control of short-term capital flows.

If prices start to fall below this level, the current recovery could lose momentum and head toward support.

4,800 points: near-term resistance level

The next important upside area is around 4,800.

This is the first significant level of resistance on the current rally. A clean breakout of this area would indicate that buyers are no longer just defending support but are starting to build enough strength for a broader continuation.

If gold prices decline here, the market may remain corrective recovery rather than a stronger upward expansion.

5,018: Major upward hurdle

Above that, 5,018 remains a major structural hurdle.

This is the most important aspect of the big picture. If buyers regain this area, the rebound will transform into a stronger bullish recovery structure. Until then, the market still needs to respect levels near the overhead resistance.

4,499: Main support area

On the downside, 4,499 remains the first major support level.

If gold prices decline, buyers will need to defend this area to keep the rally structure intact. Consolidation above this area would support the idea of ​​another upward attempt.

4,315: Deeper support

Below, 4,315 is deeper liquidity support.

A move toward this area could indicate that the recovery has weakened significantly and that buyers will need more time to regain broad control.

What does order flow mean?

Order flow remains in favor of short-term buyers, but the market is approaching an area that should confirm continuation.

So now:

Buyers are defending structure above $4,499
4649 is still the main focus of short-term regulation
Stronger upward momentum will only be confirmed when price begins to move firmly above the overhead resistance.

This constructively maintains the current structure, but has not yet been confirmed as part of a wider hack.

Trading scenario
Scenario 1: Recovery continues upward

If gold prices continue to break above 4649 and buying pressure remains stable, gold prices may continue to extend to the next resistance area.

Entry Point: Around 4,640–4,660 on bullish confirmation
SL: Below 4,580
TP1：4,800
TP2: 4,900
TP3: 5,018

Scenario 2: Pull back to support before continuing

If prices fail to break above immediately, gold prices may pull back to support before attempting another recovery.

Entry point: around 4,500–4,520 on bullish reaction
SL: Below 4,430
TP1: 4,649
TP2: 4,800

Situation 3: Breaking below support level

If gold eventually falls below 4,499, the correction structure will decline and potentially extend the market to deeper support.

Entry: Confirmed weakness below 4,499
SL: Above breakout support level
TP1：4,400
TP2: 4,315

Critical level of monitoring

4,649 → current recovery axis
4,800 → Near-term resistance
5,018 → Major Upward Barrier
4,499 → Main support areas
4,315 → Deeper support

in conclusion

Judging from the H4 chart, gold still maintains a recovery structure, and as long as the price remains above the current basis, the market will remain supported. The rally is valid, but buyers now need to prove they can maintain momentum with higher liquidity.

Lana’s view: As long as gold prices remain above 4499, the recovery structure remains active. A stronger break above 4,800 would strengthen the bullish case, while a break above 5,018 would be a clearer signal that buyers are regaining broad control.