XAUUSD by VertexCapital_SMC — TradingView

🧩 1. Market structure and bias

Gold (XAU/USD) has undergone a major structural shift recently. Following an ongoing uptrend and clear breakout of structure (BOS), we see a sharp decline leading to a change in the signature on the higher time frame (CHoCH).

Current Status: Bearish order flow now dominates.

Outlook: We are currently observing a correction to the top in the discount curve.

🧠 2. Fingerprints of smart money (liquidity trap)

Analysis of recent price movements reveals a classic AMD (Accumulate-Manipulate-Distribute) cycle:

Attract liquidity: Sweeping the bottom of the range will attract sellers early.

Trap: A sharp rise creates a “liquidity trap” for buyers at the top.

Unloading: A large number of distributions followed, confirming that large institutions were unloading positions.

👉 Conclusion: Smart money seeks to reprice gold lower after improving liquidity for retail traders.

🔴 3. Main Point of Interest (POI): Exhibition Area

The main area of ​​interest with a higher likelihood of trend reversal is between 4,778 – 4,796 points.

Compatibility: This is an undiluted bearish order block located within the top area (Fibonacci levels 0.618 – 0.705).

Expectation: If prices reach a liquidity void, we expect fresh institutional selling pressure to emerge.

🌍 4. Total number of core drivers

Technical settings are accompanied by sophisticated background wallpapers:

Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing friction in the Middle East and threats related to the Strait of Hormuz provide a “panic floor” for gold, preventing an immediate collapse.

Fed Factor: Recent FOMC minutes suggest a “longer higher” stance. All eyes are now on the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) data. Hot data could be the catalyst that triggers the next leg of the decline.

🎯5. Implement strategies (market monitoring)

Base case (bearish continuation): Watch for LTF (lower time frame) confirmations – such as M5/M15 CHoCH – within the 4,778 – 4,796 supply zone. This would confirm the distribution argument.

Countertrend Notes: While a technical rebound from the 4,670 area (OTE discount) is possible, it remains a high-risk scalper against the trend. The path of least resistance right now is to the downside.

Patience is the final advantage. Avoid the “noise” in the middle of the range and wait for price to reach our chosen point of interest. Let the market come to you.

How to play the PCE version tonight? Will the supply zone hold, or will we consider a deeper correction? Share your thoughts in the comments! 👇

#Gold #XAUUSD #SMC #OrderBlock #Trading_Strategy #Price_Action #Forex_Analysis #Gold_Price