Gold morning summary: Ceasefire supports gold prices, with slight upward trend in the short term

International gold prices opened higher this morning, with an increase of more than 2%. In terms of news, Iran accepted Pakistan’s ceasefire proposal and Trump agreed to suspend air strikes against Iran for two weeks, significantly reducing geopolitical risks. On the other hand, oil prices fell by more than 15%, while gold prices rose, mainly due to the market trading ahead of growing expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Short-term outlook (next two weeks): Gold prices may continue to rise if the ceasefire agreement holds; however, profits from previous long positions may lead to a minor pullback. Overall, a slight increase is expected, with limited possibility of continued decline. The only potential negative is this week’s Fed meeting minutes. If officials express serious concerns about inflation and energy disruptions, this could lead to a short-term pullback, but it is important to note that inflation + economic damage = stagflation, which is actually a favorable environment for gold.

Gold price analysis (some personal estimates): Yesterday, the gold price fluctuated between 4,600 and 4,700 US dollars, with no clear direction at the closing. News of the sudden ceasefire at 6 a.m. this morning pushed gold prices above last week’s high of $4,800, a clear and decisive rise that I prefer.

Technical analysis:

Daily chart: A break above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, a golden cross on the MACD, and an increase in the length of the red bars indicate a return of bullish momentum. However, prices are still below the 20-day moving average, indicating that the medium-term weakness has not completely dissipated; therefore, do not be too quick to declare a bull market.

Four-hour chart: Gold prices hold the key mark of 4800, and the middle line of the Bollinger Bands is showing an upward trend. The upper resistance level is 4880, and the lower support level is 4750. The relative strength index (RSI) rose to 55, crossing the oversold zone, confirming the existence of a short-term rebound.

1-hour chart: The relative strength index (RSI) is approaching overbought territory, indicating a possible short-term pullback. As long as the price stabilizes at 4780, the rally can continue – don’t let a small pullback stop you from buying.

If the upward momentum continues, combined with the daily chart pattern, the price may reach 5,000 or even 5,200. But be sure to pay close attention to key levels to avoid overtrading.

Trading strategy: Consider buying slightly in the 4730-4720 range, with a stop loss order below 4700 and a target price between 4800-4820.

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