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📊 Gold analysis after the truce between Iran and the United States – the critical stage
Markets are currently undergoing a shift after the United States and Iran announced a temporary truce, which includes the acceptance of negotiated terms and a military truce, with support from many parties in the region. These developments have significantly eased geopolitical tensions, which is directly reflected in gold price movements.
📉Basically:
Gold is considered a safe haven and typically rises as wars escalate. But with the announcement of the truce, the market began to experience a state of “fear being released”, leading to changes in investor behavior.
Less pressure → less demand for gold as a safe haven
Oil prices fall sharply after truce → Allays inflation fears
Weak dollar + interest rate cut expectations → temporary support for gold
Therefore, we note that gold is currently in a state of conflict between two factors:
🔹Cash support (Interest + USD)
🔹 Geopolitical pressure (calming tensions)
📊 Technically:
The price reaches a strong supply zone around 4825-4850, which is a clear rejection zone.
This area represents recent highs + selling liquidity
Failure to stabilize above it would signal temporary weakness
📉Expected scenarios:
As long as the price is below 4825, the most likely ones are:
Beginning of downward correction
First target: 4640
Second target: 4550
The decline may be preceded by a corrective move (pullback).
📌Alternatives:
If there is a clear breakout and stabilization above 4825
→ Trend turns upward
→ We may see an extension of the new peak
See previous analysis posted on our page.
⚠️Risk Management (very important):
Strong inflation data due on Friday this week
This means:
high volatility
Probability of hitting in both directions
so:
❌Not recommended for large sizes
✅ Best short-term trading + strict money management
🎯Conclusion:
Gold is currently in a sensitive phase between geopolitical calm and monetary support.
The discount will start from area 4825:
Stability below it = Bearish correction
Breakthrough = continue to rise
