Trump Delays War – Gold’s Rally or Liquidity Trap? OANDA:XAUUSD by BMR_MasteTrade — TradingView

Gold prices fell after a sharp bullish move as geopolitical tensions temporarily cooled.

Markets were quick to react to news of a two-week pause in military action against Iran, following a major shift in tone from Donald Trump.

Oil prices fell sharply.
Increased risk awareness.
Gold started to fall.

This suggests that the current move is driven more by positioning than panic.

🌍 Overall narrative

There are several macro forces affecting gold right now:

• Temporary calm reduces immediate need for shelter
• Falling oil prices will ease inflationary pressures in the short term
• Dollar stability limits gold’s sharp gains
• Market focus has turned to upcoming U.S. inflation data

👉 This creates short-term downward pressure within a broader framework of uncertainty.

📰 Key market events and data

Geopolitical update:

• U.S. military operations halted for two weeks
• Iran agrees to reopen Strait of Hormuz
• Negotiations scheduled for April 11 (Islamabad)

Market reaction:

• Oil surges↓
• Risk assets↑
• Gold↓ (short squeeze)

Upcoming high-impact data:

• Open Market Committee Minutes (Today)
• PCE inflation (April 9)
• Consumer Price Index (April 10)

👉These events may trigger the next big move.

📊 Artistic appearance (2 hours)

From a structural point of view:

• Strong upward motivation will bring about personality changes (CHOCH)
• Price has now fallen to the FVG + Fibonacci zone
• The current zone (4700–4730) is the main reaction zone
• Momentum slows after expansion

👉 This indicates a retracement phase before the next move.

📌 Main levels

🟢Demand area/FVG area: 4,699 – 4,725
📊 Recovery level: 4,817
🎯Mid-term target: 4,858
✨ Expansion target: 4,926

🚀 Scenario 1 – Bullish

If price remains above the FVG area:

Buyers may come back.

Possible paths:

4720 → 4817 → 4858 → 4926

👉 Continue after undo.

⚠️Second Scenario – Bearish

If the price exceeds 4700:

The decline is likely to deepen further.

Prices may wash away lower liquidity before recovering.

👉 Especially as feelings of risk continue to improve.

🧠 Market prospects

Gold prices fell as war tensions temporarily cooled.

👉 This behavior often reflects:

A short-term shift in sentiment rather than a structural reversal.

Liquidity rebalances after a strong momentum move.