Exchange XAUUSD for PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD by Sajad_ayad — TradingView

After recent gold action, which has seen a strong gap with clear buying impulses, the market is currently testing a very critical area around 4800 which is considered:

Historical resistance turns into liquidity zone
Close to previous peak (liquidity pool)
Represents the breaking point of the structure.

The strongest scene:
If the price manages to break above 4,800 and stabilize above it (close + retest)
This reinforces the continuation of the uptrend:

🎯 First goal: 4,955
🎯 Second goal: 4,983

📈 Why do we expect a rise? (intelligent analysis)

fair value gap
→ Indicates the entry of strong institutional liquidity (Smart Money)
current momentum
→ Impulse candles without deep correction = strong buyers
critical resistance test
→ The market often either strongly rejects or explodes higher

🌍 Connection to current events (fundamental analysis)

The current geopolitical situation is the most important factor:

Tensions escalate between the United States and Iran
Donald Trump’s rhetoric threatens attacks on Iran’s infrastructure, power plants
If the agreement fails, it will directly threaten large-scale military escalation
Attacks and tensions have affected global energy supplies and raised economic concerns

⚠️Also:

There is talk of a temporary truce, but it is unstable and could collapse at any time

💡What does this mean for gold?

Gold is considered a safe haven and therefore:

✔️Any military upgrade = strong gains for gold
✔️Crackdown on energy facilities = higher inflation = additional support for gold
✔️ Political instability = investment liquidity into gold

📌Conclusion:

Technology + basic scenario compatibility:

Technically: Breakthrough 4,800 = Start of upward climb
Fundamentals: Tensions support continuation of uptrend

🔥 Therefore, this transaction is considered a high probability type if:
Consistency above 4,800, not just a false breakout