# Key factors driving uptrends (strong dominance)
🛡️Ceasefire does not mean peace. Safe-haven demand is transforming into long-term demand
The market interpreted this as “the crisis has been postponed and not resolved.” **The risk of renewed conflict after two weeks has been internalized, funds have shifted from “short-term hedging” to “medium and long-term allocation”, and buying has become more feasible.

🛢️Oil prices fell sharply ← Expectations for interest rate cuts increased (the strongest macroeconomic logic)
Ceasefire → opening of the strait → sharp fall in oil prices → relief of inflationary pressures → significant recovery in expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve → falling real interest rates → significant drop in the cost of holding gold.

📈Technical breakthrough, 4800 becomes new support level
The price of gold strongly broke through the previous historical high, and the 4800 mark turned from a resistance level to a strong support level. Both the 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages are showing an upward trend, and the MACD indicator has formed a golden cross, indicating that the trend is obvious.

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