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XAUUSD – Pressure is building below resistance, downside is still in play
After its recent recovery, gold has begun to show significant hesitation, with prices currently stalling below key supply areas. Despite the previous rally, the market did not follow suit aggressively and instead formed a lower top structure below resistance.
At the same time, the overall context has changed. Federal Reserve officials expressed greater concern about inflation and a preference for more hawkish policy, adding to pressure on gold and limiting upward momentum.
Market background
Recent comments from Fed officials have emphasized that inflation remains a priority over employment, reinforcing expectations for continued tightening.
As energy prices rise and inflation risks intensify, policy is likely to remain restrained for longer. This creates a less favorable environment for gold in the short term, especially if the U.S. dollar strengthens.
While long-term drivers remain the same, immediate responses are more cautious and influenced by stress.
technical perspective
In the 1-hour structure, gold prices formed a clear rejection near the 4,665-4,675 sell zone, consistent with previous resistance and the descending trend line.
The price has shown a slight structural shift (MSS) and is currently consolidating below resistance, indicating that buyers are losing control.
Below current prices, the next significant decline in sell-side liquidity will occur around 4,550, followed by deeper buy zones at 4,523-4,530.
This structure suggests that the current move is not a continuation of the rebound, but rather a distribution phase below resistance in preparation for a possible downward cycle.
critical level
Resistance/Sell Zone: 4,665 – 4,675
Current price: ~4,640
Seller Liquidity: ~4,550
Buy Zone (FVG): 4,523 – 4,530
Deeper Liquidity: ~4,350
market scene
Scenario 1 – Follow-up (preferred)
As long as price remains below 4,665-4,675, the structure favors the downside. The next move is likely to target liquidity at 4,550, followed by 4,530 if momentum builds.
Secondary scene – hesitation before decline
Prices are likely to remain under pressure between 4,600-4,670, building liquidity before a more pronounced decline.
Invalid Scenario – Resistance Recovery
A clear breakout and stabilization above 4,700 could weaken bearish views and open the way for further gains.
Comment
The main signal here is the failure to break through the resistance level despite the previous support structure.
Currently, the supply of gold trading is insufficient, the momentum is weakening, and the overall pressure is increasing. This combination usually results in continuation rather than reversal.
Against the current backdrop, gold looks more like it is preparing for another dip rather than building a sustainable rally.
