XAUUSD by Lilybelle_gl — TradingView

market analysis

Gold remains within a constructive bullish structure and from the current chart, the upward move still appears to be part of an active fifth wave sequence rather than a full cycle. After the previous recovery phase, the price entered a controlled pullback, but the pullback was still absorbed above major support levels, keeping the bullish outlook valid.

It is worth noting that the market continues to focus on the fourth wave support area near 4580-4600 points. This area is important because it acts as a structural ground for current surges. As long as gold prices remain above this base, the overall bullish case remains valid.

Looking at the chart, the next important level is the weekly high near 4800.4. This is the breaking point that buyers need to recapture to confirm new momentum. If the price breaks this area and stabilizes above it, the next extension could open towards the 5100 area, which is marked as the main target for the fifth wave.

The current structure also suggests that this correction is still a correction and not a bearish reversal move. The price failed to break through the support level. Instead, it stabilized above key levels while maintaining a higher bottom pattern. That’s why I still think the market will rise again as long as support remains in place.

Key price areas to watch

Current price range: around 4676
Fourth wave support area: 4580-4600
Weekly high/breakout level: 4800.4
The main target of the fifth wave: near 5100 points

My scenarios and strategies

My preferred scenario is to continue to follow the market from a buy-side perspective, as the current structure still indicates that the fifth wave is not over yet.

As long as XAUUSD remains above the 4580-4600 support area, I am leaning towards bullish continuation. The ideal approach here would be to watch for price support in this area and show a steady bullish reaction on the lower time frames. If this happens, gold prices could rise towards the weekly high of 4800.4 as the first upside target.

If buyers are able to break and hold above 4800.4, this will strengthen the continuation pattern and open the way for further extension to the 5100 target area, where the fifth wave may be close to completion.

From a trading planning perspective, the 4580-4600 area remains a key area to maintain a bullish bias. As long as this rule is followed, the market remains supportive of buying, but if the price breaks below this area and starts to stabilize under stronger downward pressure, the setup should be canceled. In this case, the current bullish structure will weaken and gold prices may enter a deeper correction before another clean structure emerges.

Therefore, the current preferred chart is still simple: I tend to buy as long as the support level holds, focus on the breakthrough point of 4800.4, and the main target of the fifth wave remains at 5100.

This is the setup I’m currently monitoring. Thank you for reading and always manage your risks carefully.