XAUUSD by Lana_M2 — TradingView

XAUUSD H4: Gold continues to recover, but the 5018 mark still determines the next move

Gold continues to recover from recent lows, and the structure of the current H4 frame suggests that buyers are gradually regaining control. However, this is still a recovery phase rather than a confirmed bullish turn as the price remains below the large resistance area above it.

basic background

The overall tone became more supportive of gold.

Gold prices in the local market continue to show renewed strength, with a recent rebound in global pricing suggesting buyers are returning after recent sharp declines. Meanwhile, a weaker U.S. dollar and cautious market sentiment helped stabilize the precious metals.

This is important because physical demand remains unchanged and as overall pressures begin to decline, gold tends to begin a technical recovery before the overall trend becomes clearer.

Technical architecture on H4
Overall structure

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD is recovering from lower support areas after a deep sell-off in the 4,377-4,417 liquidity zone. The region’s reaction is important because it shows buyers are still willing to defend lower prices.

However, the market remains within a bearish structure and is below the major resistance at 5,018 points. This means that the current move is constructive but not yet fully confirmed as a larger trend reversal.

4,620: The fulcrum of the current recovery

The market is currently trading around 4,620, which is the first short-term pivot point.

Holding above this area keeps the recovery leg active and suggests buyers remain in control of the near-term structure. If the price starts to fall below this level, momentum may slow down and the market may retest lower support first.

4,720–4,780: First resistance zone

The most noteworthy bullish area is around 4,720-4,780 points.

This is the first meaningful area of ​​resistance in the current recovery. If buyers can squeeze through this area, the recovery will become stronger and open the way for the continuation of the higher structural trend.

5,018: Major structural barriers

The most important key level is 5,018.

This is the biggest resistance and the dividing line between a technical recovery and broader bullish returns. If gold prices return to this level, the market will begin to enter a stronger recovery phase.

As long as the price remains below 5,018, the rebound may be viewed as a correction within the larger structure.

5,183–5,242: Liquidity area for selling above

Above 5,018, the next major resistance is around 5,183-5,242.

This is the upper bound area for sales liquidity, and if the recovery persists, strong selling pressure may return. The area is still marked on the chart.

4,357: Minimum support

On the downside, 4,357 points is considered to be an important support level below the current market.

If the recovery fails and prices move lower again, buyers will need to defend this area to prevent the recovery structure from weakening too much.

What does order flow indicate?

Order flow suggests buyers have effectively recovered from lower liquidity areas, but higher resistance still needs to be reclaimed before the overall structure turns bullish.

So now:

Buyers defended lower support area well
Recovery remains active while prices remain near current bases
But the strongest confirmation will come only when gold breaks above 4,720-4,780 and then 5,018.

This leaves the near-term outlook constructive but still conditional.

Trading scenario
Scenario 1: Recovery continues higher

If gold prices hold above the current pivot point and buying pressure remains stable, gold prices may extend higher towards the next resistance area.

Entry: Around 4,600–4,620, bullish confirmation
SL: Below 4,520
TP1: 4,720
TP2: 4,780
TP3: 5,018

Scenario 2: Below 5,018 Rejected

If the price rises but fails to reclaim 5,018, the trend may continue to correct and head lower again.

Entry: Approaching resistance, bearish rejection
SL: Above the highest rejection point
TP1: 4,620
TP2: 4,488
TP3: 4,357

Scenario 3: Strong breakout of 5,018 points

If buyers decisively recycle 5,018, the overall recycling structure will be significantly improved.

Entry: After confirmation of breaking through 5,018 points
SL: Under repair area
TP1: 5,183
TP2: 5,242

Critical level of monitoring

4,620 → current recovery axis
4,720–4,780 → First resistance zone
5,018 → Major Structural Obstacles
5,183–5,242 → Top Sales Liquidity
4,357 → minimum support
4,377–4,417 → Main Support Base

in conclusion

Gold is showing a healthier recovery from recent lows, with the recovery becoming more credible as buyers continue to defend support. However, the broader H4 structure still needs further confirmation before a stronger upward continuation can be believed.

Lana’s view: As long as gold prices maintain their current base, the recovery remains active. A break above 4,720-4,780 would strengthen the recovery, while a clean recovery above 5,018 would be a real sign that buyers are regaining broader control.