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The gold market is at a very sensitive stage. After completing the five-wave downward structure at the bottom of 4.098, the price entered the technical recovery stage. The big question now is: where does this recovery end?
📉 1. Structural Analysis (SMC & ELLIOTT)
Elliott Wave: The main structure of the pulse is complete. Currently, XAUUSD is riding a triple ABC recovery wave.
Wave C target: It is expected to move towards the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci confluence area, corresponding to the price level of 4.778-4.863.
Liquidity area: Above 4.86x, there is a very large liquidity lake (equal high). This is the “bait” that smart money uses to push prices higher, clear stops for sellers, and then continue a long-term downward trend.
🌎 2. Total variables (basic)
Don’t forget the shocking event that can turn all technical analysis upside down:
The Trump factor: A national address on the Iran war at 9 PM ET will spark extreme volatility.
US Data: The ADP and ISM manufacturing announcements at the beginning of the month will determine the short-term strength of the US dollar.
🎯 3. Trade plan
We don’t predict, we react to the market:
🔵Scenario 1: Selling on highs (priority)
Ideal sales area: 4.778 – 4.864 (premium area).
Entry conditions: Wait for the liquidity liquidation movement (quét đỉnh) and CHoCH to appear in the M15/M5 framework.
Target: 4.614 — 4.450 — and beyond the old low of 4.100.
🔴Scenario 2: Early rejection (REJECTION)
If the price reacts strongly and closes below the 4.614 area with heavy selling, the C recovery may end early. In this case, the seller will immediately regain control.
💡The market creates a feeling of “rebound and reversal” to lure small buyers into a trap (induction). Be patient and wait for the price to move into premium territory to get the best R:R ratio.
What are your thoughts on this resurgence? Will the price of gold reach 4.86 times or collapse early?
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