Support Confirmed: Buy Gold on Dips

Hello everyone.

Q: What were the most important news events affecting gold prices over the weekend?

A: The news was relatively quiet over the weekend, but there are a few points worth noting:

1. Normal navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has not yet resumed. If conflicts in the Middle East continue and inflation risks worsen, gold’s strategic value will remain supported.

2. Entering the market when prices fall: As the price of gold approaches a bear market (down about 19% from its highest level), the demand for buying gold at dips begins to enter the market.

3. The market still expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates: Gold prices may enter a “fourth wave” of consolidation that will last for several months, with the risk of falling to $4,000.

4. Some central banks are selling gold: In the two weeks since the war with Iran broke out, Turkey sold and exchanged more than $8 billion worth of gold to support its currency, and Poland is also considering selling gold to support defense spending. The slowdown in central bank gold purchases has had a certain impact on market sentiment.

Q: What is the current technical status? Answer: This week, gold showed a pattern of “first falling and then sharp V-shaped rebound”, and the competition between buyers and sellers intensified in the range of US$4,300-4,600.

Main technical level:

Resistance levels: $4550-4565, $4600-4602, $4760

Support levels: $4460-4475 (short-term support), $4400-4430, $4350-4375 (main support area), $4300.

1: As long as gold prices remain above the key range of $4,300-$4,600, the long-term upward trend remains.

2: Gold prices are currently in the “fourth wave” adjustment stage, which may last for several months and has the risk of falling to the $3,700-4,000 range.

3: The decline in the stock market and the appreciation of the US dollar are negative factors for gold. The recovery in gold prices depends on demand for it as a safe-haven asset. If market sentiment worsens, gold prices could face downward pressure.

Q: What events are worthy of attention next Monday?

A: The focus next Monday (March 30) will be Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s speech. Due to the Good Friday holiday next Friday, trading hours will be shortened and liquidity will be lower, potentially increasing the risk of price volatility.

Q: What is the specific trading strategy?

Answer: Buy on dips after confirmation of support (main strategy).

Entry point: focus on the $4460-4475 area (short-term support). If gold prices fall into this range after the opening and start to show signs of stabilizing, you can open a small buying position.

Price targets: The first target price is $4530-4550, and the second target price is $4600.

Stop Loss: Set below $4,430.

Second strategy: Sell at key resistance levels (betting on the decline).

Entry Point: If gold rebounds towards the $4,550 area and starts to show signs of stalling, a small sell position can be opened.

Target price: around $4480-4500.

Stop Loss: Set above $4,600.

Short-term traders: focus on the $4460-4565 range. A range trading strategy (buying near the lower end and selling near the upper end) is relatively safe ahead of Powell’s speech and the non-farm payrolls release.

This trend could intensify if gold prices actually hold above $4,600.

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