Classic analysis

Overall trend: From a weekly perspective, the stock has been in a sharp downward trend since its all-time high (near 60 riyals), but is currently going through a phase of occasional fluctuations that tend to be upward.

Support and resistance levels:

Main Resistance: 39.00 – 40.00 SAR (previous price explosion zone).

Main support: SAR 35.00 (strong retracement zone).

Price Pattern: A double bottom pattern is currently forming on the daily frame and a break above the 38.50 riyal level will confirm the pattern.

2. Smart Currency Concept (SMC) Analysis

Structure: When the last high was broken, we noticed a CHoCH (Characteristic Change) on the hourly frame, which indicated a shift in liquidity in favor of buyers.

Order Block (OB): There is strong buy OB in the 35.50 – 36.00 riyal area (clearly visible on the hourly frame after liquidity scan).

Liquidity: Prior to the current rally, the stock’s liquidity swept to previous lows of 34.00 riyals.

Fair Value Gap (FVG): There is an unfilled fair value gap at the 38.20 SAR level, to which the stock is currently attracted.

3. Wyckoff analysis

Current stage: The stock is in the accumulation stage.

Spring: The rebound from the 34.00 riyal level represents “spring”, as a false break above the support level is intended to collect volume and we are now in the SOS (Sign of Strength) phase above the 37.00 riyal level.

Volume: We notice a gradual increase in volume for the bullish green candle, which confirms the validity of the bounce.

4. Technical indicators

RSI: On the hourly chart, the indicator is above the 50 line and moving upwards. There are currently no worrisome overbought signals.

ADX: Indicates that the strength of the downtrend is weakening and new upward momentum is beginning to form.

Volume: At the recent lows, there was a positive “divergence” between price and volume, where price was falling while volume was decreasing, indicating that selling had dried up.

5. Transaction Management

Ideal entry point: Enter now (37.72 SAR) or wait for a minor pullback to test the 37.20 SAR area.

Stop Loss (SL): Daily closing price below 35.80 SAR.

First goal (TP1): 39.20 riyals.

Second target (TP2): 42.50 riyals.

6. Scene

Base case: Upside momentum continues to test the 39.00 riyal resistance area, if the daily close breaks this resistance area, we will go directly to the second target.

Another scenario: The stock fails to hold above the 37.00 SAR and retests the 35.00 SAR rally area before really moving higher.

7. Final evaluation

Expected trade success rate: 70% (due to clarity on accumulation and liquidity exit phases).

Trade Type: Ideal as a one to three week swing.

Conclusion: The stock is in a good technical rebound zone, and data shows that “smart money” is in control after clearing positions at the recent bottom.

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