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Gold faces macro tailwinds, but charts remain cautious
The gold dollar could benefit from escalating geopolitical tensions, but technical structures still point to caution.
Gold is entering a difficult phase where the macro story and charts are no longer moving in the same direction.
At the macro level, the background as a supporter is clear. The closure of the strait, increased military activity and increasing regional instability have heightened the need for shelter. When conflicts escalate and global trade routes are threatened, markets immediately begin to price in higher energy risks, supply chain disruptions and renewed inflationary pressures. Under normal circumstances, this should be positive for gold.
But the chart tells a different story.
Despite geopolitical support, XAUUSD is still trading within a broader descending structure, with the price unable to reclaim the important Fibonacci sell zone above. This is the paradox the market is facing right now: The macro environment wants to support gold, but technicals still show the market struggling with resistance.
Technical structure
From a structural perspective, gold prices remain under pressure after falling sharply from the upper border of the channel. Price has reacted from lower areas and attempted to establish a rebound, but the recovery remains trapped below a major resistance band.
This chart highlights a clear technical picture:
Buyer liquidity area near 4,250-4,300 is the first support level
The 4,650-4,720 area is a major resistance and Fibonacci sell zone for the recovery
At current support, the channel bottom opens towards the 4000 area
Unless price is able to reclaim the upper resistance band, the rebound will still look like a correction rather than a true reversal
This leaves the market in a fragile equilibrium. Gold is supported by macro risks, but technically the trading structure has not yet turned in favor of buyers.
Main price area
Immediate support/buy liquidity: 4,250–4,300
This is the first important area of support. If buyers can continue to defend this area, a rebound scenario will remain in play.
Major Resistance/Fibonacci Sell Area: 4,650–4,720
This is the main area where gold needs to recover before structural improvements occur. As long as the price remains below it, the upward trend remains limited.
Channel Bottom/Deeper Downside Risk: ~4,000
If support fails and sellers regain momentum, it will become the next broader downside destination.
market scene
Scenario 1 – Hold support and bounce back to resistance
This is a constructive assumption in the short term.
If gold continues to hold above the current buyer liquidity zone, prices may recover towards the 4,650-4,720 resistance band. This is consistent with the idea of a return in safe-haven demand as geopolitical tensions remain elevated.
However, this move still needs to be confirmed. Resistance regression is different from structural transformation.
Scenario 2 – Rejection from sell zone and renewed weakness
This is the technically cleanest scene so far.
Even as gold prices move higher on macro concerns, the chart shows Fibonacci sell zone could still attract heavy selling pressure. If price is rejected there, the market could drop again and test support.
This would suggest that macro support is helping gold rebound, but not enough to fully reflect the broader structure.
Situation 3 – Support lost and extending towards the access floor
This is a path that continues downward.
If the current support area fails completely, the market may continue to fall along the broader downward channel towards the 4,000-point area. In this case, technological structures will completely dominate despite the geopolitical context.
Market vision
In this type of market, traders tend to become one-sided prematurely.
Yes, geopolitics should support gold.
Yes, safe harbor logic still matters.
But price is the final arbiter, and the charts still don’t quite satisfy the bullish macro narrative at the moment.
In my opinion, gold trades between macro tailwinds and technical resistance. This means that a rise is understandable but still needs to be confirmed by the structure. The broader charts still view the pullback as corrective until the market is able to reclaim the 4,650-4,720 area.
For now, the message is simple: global tensions are likely to support gold prices, but technically the market still needs to prove it can turn fear into a sustainable bull move.
