Gold is at the only level that determines its next move

Gold did two completely opposite things during the New York session.

An initial strong bounce to 4554.95 looks poised to continue higher.
Subsequently, it failed to hold the upper bidding, reversed lower, and closed below the control point 4513.18 again, directly above 4501.52.

This leaves gold in a sensitive position.
Not obviously bullish.
And definitely not bearish.
Rather, it is only at one level of deciding what happens next.

Why is 4501.52 important?

This is not just another support line.

In this figure, 4501.52 corresponds to the 0.618 sector axis and lower LVN region. Simply put, this is a weak area where price tends not to stay for long. It either takes it back and stays above it, or it loses it and moves quickly to the next real support area.

That’s why this level is so important right now.
If gold prices clearly break above 4501.52, this could open the way for a quicker decline than many traders expect.

The figure shows two clear paths

If buyers call back and hold 4513.18, then the late decline will look more like a liquidation of positions than an actual acceptance of a lower price. Then 4528.01 comes back to the foreground first, followed by 4538.89, with 4554.95 being the target for a full upside recovery.

If the seller accepts a price below 4501.52, the lower space will open first towards 4494.16 and then towards 4491.33. If this area fails to hold, 4486.77 will clearly become the next bearish target. Then perform a more in-depth test on the lower values ​​between 4477.02 and 4471.75.

What should I watch during the North American session?

The middle area is where traders often get tired, so I don’t want to force a look between 4513.18 and 4501.52.

Above 4513.18 I would like to see buyers prove they can restore value.
Below 4501.52, I would like to see sellers sustain the breakout and not just quickly tail it.

That’s why I view this map simply as:
Either recover or fail.

My view is slightly negative as long as price is below 4513.18, but this view will not change into a clearer direction unless 4501.52 is broken and acceptance below it is actually achieved. Until then, gold is still deciding whether this is just a failed top or just a correction that needs another try to fix.

trading plan

Bullish scenario:
Recover 4513.18 and then hold above that level on retest.
Cancellation: None 4501.52 Return
Target: 4528.01, then 4538.89, then 4554.95

Bearish scenario:
Accept price below 4501.52, otherwise retest from below will not be possible.
Cancellation: Return to above 4513.18
Target: 4494.16, then 4491.33, then 4486.77
Stretch Goal: 4477.02 to 4471.75

most important level

4513.18 = Recovery Level
4501.52 = Failure level
4494.16 / 4491.33 = first support area
4486.77 = Next downside target
4528.01 / 4538.89 = First Level of Bullish Repair
4554.95 = Remediation goal achieved

in conclusion

Gold is now at the line that determines where the North American session will go next.

4513.18 Repair means the buyer is able to repair the damage.
A break above 4501.52 makes the downside path clearer.

If this analysis was helpful in your preparation for the session, please click “Like” and write to me which level do you think will determine the next move in gold: 4513.18 or 4501.52?

For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.