XAUUSD by Lana_M2 — TradingView

XAUUSD H4: Gold bottoms out but broader recovery still needs to be confirmed

Gold is trying to recover after the recent sharp sell-off, and the reaction at the $4,160 bottom suggests buyers remain active at deep discount levels. Meanwhile, the broader structure on the H4 chart remains fragile, meaning this move looks more like a redemption risk than a confirmed bullish reversal.

basic background

The macro picture for gold remains mixed.

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in March, and its latest forecast still points to a relatively flat policy path until 2026. The median forecast for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 remains at 3.4%, which continues to support the dollar and put pressure on non-yielding assets such as gold.

Meanwhile, domestic gold prices rose again in India, with the Indian market strengthening again in rupee terms. This suggests that while the gold dollar is trading in a technically weak structure, regional and physical demand remains supportive.

Therefore, gold is currently trapped between two forces:
Firm price expectations have limited upside, while buying demand has begun to emerge following the recent pullback.

H4 technical architecture
Overall structure

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD is bouncing off recent lows near 4,158, which is marked as a lower buy point on the chart. This response is important because it shows that buyers are ready to aggressively move in from the deep discount zone.

However, the broader structure remains bleak. Prices remain below the first major liquidity level at 4,693 points and the most important recovery barrier at 4,858 points. As long as gold prices remain below these areas, the market remains in recovery mode rather than a confirmed trend shift.

4,558: Current retracement base

The 4558 area is the first support level for the current rebound.

This area is important because this is where buyers try to establish short-term stability after a sharp decline. If the price can continue to hold above this area, the rebound is likely to remain active and extend upwards. If gold loses this footing again, the recovery structure will quickly weaken.

4,693: First bullish turning point

The first major level above the market is 4,693, which has been identified as buyer liquidity.

This is the first important test for buyers. If prices can recover to this level, the rebound will become more credible and open the way for further gains. If gold fails to hold above it, the move will look like a temporary correction within a weaker structure.

4,858: Major obstacles to recovery

Above this, 4,858 remains a major structural impediment.

This level separates normal retracements from more significant returns. If gold reaches this area and is rejected, sellers may regain control while the broader market remains under pressure. If buyers can break out and hold above it, recovery prospects will improve significantly.

5,343 – 5,412: Main sales areas

If the rally continues strong, the next major resistance level is 5,343 – 5,412 points.

This is the sell area marked on the chart and is the area where sellers may become aggressive again. Even if gold reaches this area, the market will still need to prove it can absorb the supply there.

4,158: lowest buying point

On the downside, there are still 4,158 major failure levels.

As long as this bottom holds, the recovery hypothesis remains valid. If the price falls below this level, the rally will lose credibility and downside risks will re-emerge.

What does the order process mean?

Current order flow suggests buyers have reacted reasonably from the bottom but remain unable to control the broader market structure.

So, now:

Buyers are defending the 4,158 low
As long as prices remain above current bases, the rally remains valid
But below 4,693, especially below 4,858, sellers still have the greatest structural advantage

This supports the view that gold can continue to rise in the short term, but confirmation still depends on the restoration of liquidity above.

Trading scenario
Scenario 1: Recovery expands further

If gold prices continue to hold above current bases and buying momentum improves, prices could extend into the next liquidity zone.

Entry Point: Around 4,540 – 4,560 on bullish confirmation
SL: less than 4,480
TP1: 4,693
TP2: 4,858
TP3: 5,343 – 5,412

Scenario 2: Rejected at 4,693

If the price recovers to 4,693 but fails to hold above, the market may continue to correct and fall again.

Admission: Approximately 4,693 when declined
SL: Above the top of rejection
TP1: 4,560
TP2: 4,400

Scenario 3: Strong recovery above 4,858 points

If buyers decisively reclaim 4,858, the broader structure will improve and gold could extend into overhead selling territory.

Entry: Confirmed breakout of 4,858 points
SL: smaller than the recovery area
TP1: 5,050
TP2: 5,343 – 5,412

Key levels worth paying attention to

4,558 → Current bounce rules
4,693 → No. 1 Bullish Liquidity
4,858 → Major barriers to recovery
5,343 – 5,412 → Main sales area
4,158 → minimum buy point/invalid level

in conclusion

Gold has rebounded constructively from recent bottoms, but the broader H4 structure still needs to be confirmed. The macro backdrop remains complex: Federal Reserve policy remains relatively stable, supporting the dollar, while physical demand signals in regional markets such as India remain supportive.

Lana’s vision is clear: gold can continue to recover in the short term, but real confirmation will only come if gold recovers to 4,693 and then 4,858. Until then, the rally should be viewed as a correction rather than a complete shift in trend.

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