. trend analysis

Weekly frame (W): The current trend is bearish. After achieving a double top near the SAR 28.00 level, the price started forming lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL).

Moving Averages: Price is currently below the 50-day moving average (orange line at 20.07), confirming medium-term sell-off control.

Trading status: The right side of the chart shows the status as “Bearish” and the trend as “Trend Active” down.

2. Smart Currency (SMC) Analysis and Price Action

Change of Character (ChoCh): Price completed a bearish “change of character” process after breaking above the recent uptrend lows, changing the outlook from positive to negative.

Order Area (OB-W): The price is now approaching the very important weekly order area (OB-W), which is defined by the dotted rectangle between the 13.50 – 15.50 riyal levels.

Breakout Structure (BOS): We note a repeated structural breakout of the previous bottom (BOS), which indicates the strength of the current downward momentum.

3. Technical indicators (Indicators)

Volume: Decreased volume was observed at the recent lows, which may indicate sales “absorption” or weakness in sales capacity as demand areas approach.

Price Action: The last candle showed a lower tail as it hit the 16.00 area, which was the initial signal of a consolidation attempt.

4. Technical vision and expected scenarios
First: Bullish (Bounce) Scenario

Admission area: between 14.50 and 15.80 riyals (within OB-W area).

Target:

First target: 18.20 riyals (previous price gap area).

Second target: 20.00 riyals (moving average test).

Stop Loss: Weekly closing price below 13.40 riyals.

Second: Bearish Scenario

If the OB-W (13.50 SAR) area is broken on high weekly closing volume, the price may target the 11.50 SAR area as the next historical support.

5. Final recommendations
CategoryTechnical Consulting
For investors

The stock is approaching historical “consolidation” territory. It is best to wait for a reversal candle (Pin Bar or Engulfing) to appear on the weekly frame within the green box area.
for speculators

Avoid random entry for now. Wait for a break above the first minor top on the hourly frame (15 minutes) to confirm an intraday reversal before targeting the 18.00 level.

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