Gold awaits CPI data to confirm turning point

Gold awaits CPI data to confirm turning point

As shown in the figure: 1-hour triangle oscillation interval

Yesterday’s forecast of “a narrow range Wednesday to Thursday” is now coming true.

Today, the market is waiting for the release of the Fed’s most anticipated indicator – the US core personal consumption expenditures index data for February, which may trigger an inflection point.

Tensions rise in the Middle East:

Strait of Hormuz traffic down 95%: Since March, commercial shipping traffic has dropped 95% compared to pre-conflict levels, disrupting 20% ​​of global oil and gas trade routes.

According to Iran’s Fars News Agency, on the 24th of this month, the United States and Israel launched attacks on two energy infrastructure sites in Isfahan and Khorramshahr.

An adviser to Iran’s supreme leader said Iran would not stop the war until it received full compensation, lifting of sanctions and international legal guarantees of U.S. non-interference.

Key support and resistance levels

Strong resistance: $4630

Second resistance level: $4500-4520

First resistance level: $4450-4460

First time support: $4,375

Basic support: $4350-$4370

Strong support: $4100-4150

Conclusion: Today’s CPI data is expected to determine the short-term trend.

The core PCE index is higher than expected: inflation continues to rise → interest rate cut expectations further decline → negative for gold.

Sell ​​on rallies and focus on the resistance area of ​​$4500-4520.

The core PCE index is lower than expected: low inflation → interest rate cut expectations → positive factors for gold.

Buy the dips, focusing on the support area between $4,375 and $4,400.

The core PCE index was in line with expectations: the impact was limited. Going back to technical analysis, adopt a trading strategy within a specific price range, within the range of $4375 to $4450, buying when the price falls and selling when it rises.

Trading Strategy: In addition to data-based speculation, there is also a focus on trading within a specific price range.

【1】Buy when the price falls to the support level (it is recommended to be conservative)

Admission area: $4,370-$4,385

Stop Loss: $4,350

First goal: $4420 – $4430

Second goal: $4450 – $4460

Third goal: $4,500-$4,520

【2】 Rebound and sell after reaching the resistance level.

Admission area: $4,450-$4,460

Stop Loss: Above $4,520

First goal: $4,400-$4,410

Second goal: $4375 – $4385

Core PCE data is the biggest variable: market volatility may be greater before and after the data is released.

It is recommended to reduce positions or remain neutral before the data is released.

Gold is currently going through a period of volatility.