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Gold recovered in the first half of the year after a sharp sell-off on news of progress in talks between the United States and Iran.
Meanwhile, institutional signals remain mixed, with ETF outflows still playing a role.
So, the real question is – is this a true rally, or just a liquidity-driven rally?
overall narrative
• World Gold Council: Central banks are expected to increase gold purchases this year.
• SPDR ETF reduced its holdings by 4.29 tons, indicating short-term capital outflows.
• Trump said progress was being made in talks with Iran, easing geopolitical uncertainty.
• Market flows remain mixed between safe-haven demand and dollar strength.
news background
Gold reacted immediately after headlines emerged that the United States was working on a broader deal with Iran.
This eased geopolitical tensions and triggered a short-term recovery.
However, ETF flows suggest institutional conditions have yet to fully turn to the upside, keeping the move uncertain.
IF–THEN news scene
If optimism about the Iran deal continues:
Gold could rise towards 4530 → 4719 (FVG).
If ETF inflows continue or positive sentiment fades:
Gold may face rejection and return to the downtrend.
artistic appearance
On the first half chart, gold is forming a short-term recovery after withdrawing liquidity below recent lows.
Gold prices are currently moving away from the demand area of 4287, indicating the entry of buyers.
The goals for future interest rate hikes are:
4530 (daily resistance)
4719 (imbalanced area/FVG)
From a professional perspective, this move looks like a correction of the imbalance (FVG) rather than a clear reversal.
If the price fails to hold above 4530, sellers may reenter the market and push the market lower again.
critical level
Support: 4287
Current price: ~4407
Resistor: 4530
FVG area: 4719
market discussion
Will gold resume its upward trend on central bank demand and geopolitical easing?
Or just filling liquidity before making the next move?
