The downward trend continues unabated! For OANDA: XAUUSD by FireWave_Gold — TradingView

– On the larger time frames (4 hours to 1 hour), the bearish Dow Jones structure has not been broken yet. The exponential moving average system (4-hour to 2-hour to 1-hour) shows that the downtrend is dominant, with the 34 EMA still below the 89 EMA, indicating that selling pressure continues to dominate.

– This area (4473 – 4493) currently serves as a key resistance area for the current technical rebound; a break above this area will start a short-term uptrend to (4580 – 4582) and then to (4734 – 4736). This area (4200 – 4222) is currently a key support area; a breach of this area will lead to a broader decline in the market.

✅ Discount:
1. Purchase scenario:

– The one-hour candle (H1) confirms the breakout of the resistance area (4473 – 4493).

– The 1-hour candle (H1) confirms a close above the 34 EMA and a break above the downtrend line, along with a break above the lower top structure.

=> When all the above factors are in place, a short-term uptrend will begin towards the resistance levels (4580 – 4582).

=> When the price breaks the resistance area (4580 – 4582), the uptrend will extend to (4734 – 4736) and then to the area (4816 – 4820). This is because this area (4580 – 4582) is a breakout area that forms a bearish Dow Jones structure on the larger time frames (H4 – H2 – H1).

2. Sales scenario:

– Candlestick breaks above the resistance area (4473 – 4493) as a hypothetical breakout.

– The Dow Jones long-term bearish structure has yet to be broken.

– If the hourly time frame (H2) candle does not close above the 34 EMA again, it is possible for sellers to enter the market and push the price back into the medium-term downtrend.

==> The uptrend ends when the price breaks out of the support area (4308 – 4310) and breaks the uptrend line.

==> When the price breaks out of this area (4200 – 4222), the downtrend will continue.