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Gold enters ‘unprecedented phase’
Spot gold prices fell to $4,099 per ounce today, the lowest level since November 2025.
This marks the ninth consecutive day of decline in gold prices, with a cumulative decline of more than 22%, falling from more than 5,300 US dollars per ounce to below 200 US dollars, officially entering a technical bear market, reaching oversold levels rarely seen in the past decade.
What is the reason for such a sharp decline?
The logic I repeatedly emphasized in the group:
1. Global central banks collectively turned to a hawkish stance (a major negative factor).
2. The U.S. dollar and U.S. bond yields both fell.
3. Liquidity crisis leads to “massive selling of gold to calm the crisis.”
Oil prices rise → Global stock markets crash → Institutions sell gold positions to boost profits.
Preset stop-loss orders lead to panic selling, forming a downward spiral of “fall → massive selling → further decline”.
Key support and resistance levels:
Strong resistance: 4300-4350
First resistance: 4200-4220
First support: 4080-4100
Key support: 4,000 points, buyers’ last line of defense.
Strong support: 3900-3920, the bottom of the overall trend.
Conclusion: The downtrend prevails, but has entered the “overbought” stage. health) status.
The 4100-4000 area is the last line of defense for the bull market, and a violent technical rebound may occur at any time.
NOTE: A safe buying opportunity has emerged before Trump’s 48-hour period expires.
Today is the deadline and the market is worried about a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear power plants.
At present, the market trend has shifted from panic to wait and see.
Conclusion: The rebound is confirmed, but not yet reversed.
Trading strategy:
Basic logic: The rebound from 4099 points to 4250 points has completed the first wave of adjustments.
The question now is: Will the rebound last?
The trading strategy changes to range trading: within the 4100-4300 range, buy when the price falls, sell when the price rises, and wait for a directional breakthrough.
Buy on dips (first choice for swing trading)
Logic: After the retracement is confirmed, the pullback to the support level is a safe entry point to open a buying position.
Arrival area: 4150-4170
Stop loss: 4130
Target level:
First target: 4250-4260
Second target: 4300-4320
Sell at resistance (offensive strategy)
Logic: 4300-4350 is a strong defensive area for sellers; subsequent rebound may encounter resistance.
Entry area: 4280-4300
Stop loss: above 4320
Target level: 4200-4220 → 4150-4170
For now, this is a rebound rather than a reversal: all gains are considered retracements until the price stabilizes above 4300.
The 4300-4350 area is the main resistance area: the previous support level has turned into a resistance level, and buyers and sellers are fiercely fighting for it.
Don’t chase the rise: The price has rebounded to 4213 over $110; chasing the rebound is risky. Waiting for a callback is the safer option.
Pay close attention to Trump’s ultimatum: Today is the deadline. If Iran’s nuclear reactors were attacked, the trend could reverse immediately.
Investors who followed the trading plan last week made profits of $15,400 per contract for five consecutive days.
This is the power of the system: only trade at key price levels and don’t let emotions get to you.
Trading opportunities will arise during the US trading session tonight; I will post about them as soon as possible.
