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Gold faces deeper weekly correction
XAUUSD will come under pressure next week, with structural instability still pointing to further movement into the 2.618 Fibonacci support area.
Gold ended the week on a heavy note after failing to stay above the uptrend structure that had underpinned the broader rally for months. The recent collapse is important. What was previously a stable uptrend has now turned into a weaker phase, with prices breaking below key Fibonacci support levels and losing upward momentum at the weekly close.
From a broader perspective, this is no longer a routine correction. The chart is starting to show that the market is preparing for greater bullish investment, and unless buyers quickly return to the structure above the breakout support, next week will remain open to lower demand areas.
Technical structure
On the higher time frames, gold actually rejected the overhead extension zone and fell sharply. The recent decline has pushed the price below the ascending trendline supporting the bullish structure, while the market is currently trading below the 0.382 Fibonacci zone.
This shift puts the chart in a weaker position.
The next key area is around 4,292, marked as the Fibonacci resistance area. This is the first level that needs to be restored to reduce the current downward pressure. But as long as prices remain below that level, the market still appears vulnerable to further declines.
Below current levels, the most important downside target lies near 4,131, which coincides with the 2.618 Fibonacci zone and the buy zone highlighted on the chart. If the sell-off continues next week, the sector could see stronger demand again.
main price area
Near-term resistance: 4,292
This is the first important level to return to the top. If gold fails to regain this area, the bearish structure will remain intact.
Main downside target/2.618 Fibonacci zone: 4,131
This is a key level to watch next week. This is the deepest support area and is the most likely to move to the downside if pressure persists.
Breaking through trend support
Losing the previous uptrend line is a major technical warning. Unless price can recover above it, the highs may be viewed as a correction rather than a true recovery.
Scenario of the week
Scenario 1 – Continued decline to 4,131
This is the main scenario for next week.
If gold prices continue to fall below the broken support structure and fail to regain 4,292, the market may continue to extend downward to the buy zone of 4,131. This would complete a deep correction to the 2.618 Fibonacci zone and keep current weekly pressure firmly to the downside.
Scenario 2 – Short-term rebound, then resumption of decline
Gold could still post a technical rebound at the start of the week, especially after such a sharp decline. But unless this rally can recover and hold above 4,292, it may continue to correct.
In this case, any recovery would allow prices to recover before sellers can pressure the market again.
Scenario 3 – 4,292 people recovered and stabilized
This is the least likely scenario at the moment, but it cannot be ignored.
If buyers can reclaim the 4,292 resistance level and build acceptance above it, the immediate downward pressure will begin to ease. This would reduce the risk of a direct move to 4,131 and suggest that the market is trying to stabilize after the plunge.
However, this requires explicit confirmation. Currently, charts do not support this view as a primary path.
Market vision
Going into next week, gold’s structure has weakened significantly.
A breakout of trend support, rejection of the upper Fibonacci levels, and an inability to sustain recent rebound attempts indicate that the market remains in correction mode. That doesn’t mean prices won’t rebound, but it does mean the burden of proof is now on the buyer.
In my opinion, the market still looks susceptible to further movement into the 2.618 Fibonacci zone around 4,131 before a proper test of stronger support.
The message for next week is simple: unless gold can regain 4,292, the broader structure could still lead to further declines towards deeper support.
