Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
XAUUSD H4: Gold faces liquidity sell-off as market prepares for next week’s trend
Gold continues to come under pressure on the H4 chart as prices trade below recent resistance areas and move near important sell-off liquidity areas. The current structure suggests that the market is still in a negative correction, but the next reaction to support may determine whether gold prices first form a rebound next week, or whether they move lower and fall into a deeper negative trend.
H4 technical architecture
Overall structure
During the fourth quarter time frame, gold posted a clear series of lower highs after failing to sustain its previous recovery. The broader structure has shifted from higher-level distribution to a more defensive phase, with price now approaching lower liquidity pools around the 4404 level.
The recent decline is very consistent with the wave forecast on the chart, as the market appears to be completing another downward move before reaching a more significant reaction area.
4,800 – 4,840: short-term supply area
The 4,800 – 4,840 point area is now the first significant area of resistance.
This level was previously support, but after the recent breakdown, it turned into supply. If gold attempts to rebound early next week, this will be the first area where sellers are likely to be active again. A weak rejection here would be consistent with a broader negative structure.
4,404: Sales Liquidity Axis
The key level to watch is the 4,404 sell liquidity area.
This is the major support area on the chart and the most important short-term pivot point next week. If price moves into this area and buyers defend it well, gold prices could form a technical rebound towards the upper supply area. But a decisive break above this level could open the way for a deeper decline.
4,220 – 4,250: Lower support area
Below selling liquidity, the next negative zone is around 4,220 – 4,250.
This would be the next logical target if current support fails and the negative wave continues to expand. This is also an area where the market may start to find stronger demand after a deep correction.
What does order flow indicate?
Current order flow suggests that sellers remain in control of the broader structure, but prices are approaching an area where negative momentum may begin to slow.
So now:
Sellers remain below the 4,800 – 4,840 resistance level
Buyers may wait near the 4,404 liquidity area
This support area may become the main decision point for next week’s direction
This means the market may experience low liquidity first before deciding whether to rebound or continue to correct.
Next week’s trading scenario
Scenario 1: Rebound after selling liquidity
If gold prices sustain above 4,404 and show a clear bullish reaction, the market may recover towards the first resistance zone.
Entry: Around 4,404, based on bullish confirmation
SL: Minimum 4,350
TP1: 4,650
TP2: 4,800 – 4,840
Scenario 2: Supply rebounds, then sales resume
If the price rebounds at the start of the week but fails to trade around 4,800 – 4,840, the negative trend may continue.
Admission: 4,800 – 4,840 (based on negative rejection)
SL: Above the last local high
TP1：4,500
TP2: 4,404
TP3: 4,220 – 4,250
Scenario 3: Below 4,404
If gold prices fall decisively below 4,404, the pullback may extend further to the support area below.
Entry: Based on confirmed breakout below 4,404
SL: Above breakout support level
TP1: 4,250
TP2: 4,220
Key levels worth paying attention to
4,800 – 4,840 → short-term supply area
4,404→Mainly supports selling liquidity
4,220 – 4,250 → lower support target
Forecast for next week
Gold still looks weak in the short term, with the broader H4 structure continuing to favor sellers while prices remain below resistance. However, the market is currently approaching important liquidity areas, which means the downward trend may start to slow if buyers step in near 4,404.
Next week, preferred sentiment remains cautiously negative, with 4,404 being a key decision-making level. Holding above this area could trigger a rebound, but a breakout would expose a deeper correction toward the next support area.
Follow Lana for more XAUUSD trading ideas and clear technical setups.
