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XAUUSD: Strong reaction to D1 frame trendline puts 5260 area in focus
Hello everyone, this is my current view on the trend of XAUUSD.
market analysis
Gold is starting to show a more consistent recovery following a strong reaction to the D1 framework’s rising trendline. Additionally, a close above this area gives a positive technical signal following the recent bearish wave. This reaction suggests that buyers are starting to defend the larger time frame structure and that the market may be headed for a broader rally rather than continuing outright weakness.
On the H2 framework, the price is currently trying to stabilize near the 4720-4730 area, the bottom of the recent retracement. This area is important because it lies directly above the daily trendline reaction and may form the basis for a medium-term upward move.
From a broader technical perspective, the market is still trading below important resistance levels, so the move up may not be completely smooth. However, the overall structure remains supportive of a recovery scenario as long as prices remain above recent lows and continue to respect trendline support on the larger time frame.
The first technical level appears at 4736 points, followed by stronger resistance near 4803 points. If the price can break through this level, the next level worth watching will be 4897 points, which is an important psychological area near 5000 points, while the long-term upward target is still around 5260 points.
Key levels worth paying attention to
Current H2 buying area: 4720–4730
Short-term resistance: 4736
Strong resistance: 4803
Next resistance level: 4897
Important upside level: 5000
Long-term goal: 5260
Scenarios and Strategies
My preferred scenario remains to look for buying opportunities around the current area, as long as gold remains supported by a positive reaction to the daily trendline. If buyers maintain control, XAUUSD may rise first to 4736, then to 4803 and 4897. If the upside momentum builds on the longer time frame, the move could extend further towards the 5260 area.
In the meantime, I prefer to remain flexible on scalping opportunities at the strong support and resistance levels shown on the chart, especially around 4736, 4803, and 4897, where short-term reactions may occur before the larger move is complete.
However, if the price loses its final rebound base and falls back below daily trendline support, the recovery structure will weaken and the bullish scenario will need to be re-evaluated.
This is the scenario I’m currently following. Thank you for your time and always remember to manage risks carefully.
