The gold market is currently behaving exactly like a mature downtrend: instead of continuing to fall, it is starting to show an orderly upward correction. But the key point is that these adjustments do not mean a trend reversal – they are simply a “liquidity reset” before prices continue to fall.

Fundamentally, nothing has changed. The Federal Reserve remains hawkish, the U.S. dollar remains strong, and gold is no longer considered a safe haven. When macroeconomic factors do not support price increases, any increases tend to lack sustainability, making it easy for the market to return to the main trend.

Looking at the chart, after the strong decline breaks the market structure, the price may retrace to the 4,800-4,850 area – an area that was previously a support level and is now a resistance level. This is also the area where price has clearly rejected before, indicating that selling pressure is already present. Therefore, price returning to this area should not be viewed as a bullish signal, but rather evidence that the market is looking for better levels to continue selling off.

As long as the downtrend remains in place and there are no signs of a breakout of the structure, the most logical scenario is for the price to complete the correction and then face rejection and continue its decline towards lower levels. This is how trends continue – not through a direct decline, but through a gradual, gradual decline interspersed with corrections that strengthen sellers.

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