XAUUSD by Lana_M2 — TradingView

Gold remains under strong pressure and the current structure still favors sellers. The recent decline is not just a technical correction, it reflects the loss of upward support as macro pressures continue to build.

basic background

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, but Powell’s tone remained stable and lowered expectations for a near-term interest rate cut, which provided support for the dollar. Meanwhile, U.S. producer prices were stronger than expected, adding to pressure on inflation expectations.

In addition, tensions between Iran and Israel continue to rise, pushing up oil prices and adding to overall market uncertainty. Gold has sold off aggressively even against the backdrop of geopolitical risks, suggesting bearish pressure is now dominating price action.

Another negative sign came from ETF flows, with the SPDR Gold Trust once again reducing its gold holdings. This tells us that institutional sentiment still does not provide enough support for market stability.

H2 technical architecture – SMC perspective
Overall structure

On the mid-term chart, XAUUSD is clearly in a downtrend. Price continues to form lower highs and lower lows while maintaining a descending structure. This confirms that sellers still control the market.

The recent break below previous support indicates that the downtrend remains active. Right now, the market isn’t in a true reversal pattern – it’s just stalling after strong selling pressure.

4,900 – 4,940: FVG resistor

The closest area on any rally is the 4,900 – 4,940 FVG area.

From an SMC perspective, this is the first area of ​​imbalance where prices may recover before sellers re-enter. If gold prices rebound into this area and fail to recover, the market could form another lower high and continue its downward trend.

This makes FVG a clear sell zone rather than a bullish recovery zone.

5,038: OB resistance

Above this, the 5,038 area remains the next most important major resistance level.

If the price is able to push prices beyond the first FVG, this area will become the next higher price area and selling pressure may return. As long as gold prices remain below this OB, the broader bearish structure remains intact.

4,844: Folding axis

The 4,844 area is now a major short-term pivot area.

Following the recent sell-off, price has traded around this level and is now separating a weak bounce from a deeper sustained move lower. If buyers fail to rally strongly above this level, the current move could be just another bearish consolidation before the next leg lower.

4,700 – 4,680: Sell-side liquidity area

Below current prices, the next major target is around 4,700 – 4,680 points.

This is the primary area of ​​sell-side liquidity on the chart and is the next important area of ​​interaction. If sellers continue to push lower, this area is the most likely target for a downtrend.

4,600: Deeper liquidity target

If the downside momentum continues to expand, the 4600 area will become a deeper pursuit target.

This would represent a broader correction, but under the current structure, it remains a realistic downside path and gold remains without resistance.

What does order flow indicate?

Order flow remains supportive to the downside.

So now:

Sellers maintain control in a top-down structure.

Identify rebound attempts before resuming bullish territory.

The market still looks to be allocating rather than accumulating.

This is why the preferred view remains bearish unless price can recover the upper bounds of FVG and OB.

Trading scenario
Scenario 1: Pullback to FVG, then continue selling

If gold rebounds towards 4,900 – 4,940 and shows rejection, sellers may take advantage of this area to continue the downtrend.

Entry Points: 4,900 – 4,940 Bearish Confirmation
SL: 4,980 and above
TP1: 4,844
TP2: 4,700
TP3: 4,680
TP4: 4,600

The second situation: direct bearish follow-up

If prices remain below 4844 and fail to recover, gold prices may continue to fall without further pullbacks.

Entry: Below 4,844 on confirmed continuation
SL: Located above the nearest restoration structure
TP1：4,700
TP2: 4,680
TP3: 4,600

Scenario 3: Restore only when the structure is restored

A stronger bullish recovery will only take effect if the price reclaims FVG and breaks above 5,038.

Entry: only after confirmation of recovery above resistance
SL: Under repair area
TP: higher resistance based on follow-up

For now, this remains the weakest case.

Key levels to follow

5,038 → OB resistance
4,900 – 4,940 → FVG sales area
4,844 → Crash Axis
4,700 – 4,680 → Primary sell-side liquidity
4,600 → deeper minimum target

in conclusion

Gold still looks decidedly bearish on the medium-term charts. A combination of the Fed’s hawkish tone, rising inflationary pressures, weak ETF sentiment, and broken technical structures are putting downward pressure on the market.

Lana remains leaning towards a bearish scenario as long as XAUUSD remains below 4,900 – 4,940, especially below 5,038. For now, the focus remains on the sell-off rebound rather than prematurely expecting a complete reversal.

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