$4880 is just one number in the downtrend.

$4880 is just one number in the downtrend.

The Fed’s decision was more hawkish than expected: no interest rate cuts this year.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve raised its forecast for personal consumption expenditures inflation in 2026 and lowered its economic growth forecast.

This directly led to a sharp depreciation of the US dollar and a fatal blow to gold.

Powell’s speech emphasized a wait-and-see attitude, completely shattering the market’s illusions about this year’s loose monetary policy.

A technological crash caused this sharp decline:

After the price of gold broke through multiple major support levels such as US$5,000 and US$4,950, it triggered a large number of sell orders and automatic stop-loss orders, triggering “bullish pressure” and a sharp decline. The price of gold fell directly below the US$4,900 mark and touched near US$4,880.

Q: Isn’t the situation in the Middle East still escalating? Why has gold’s safe-haven properties completely lost its meaning?

A: Today, the situation in the Middle East has not only improved, but has also escalated significantly.

But the most important thing is that the current market trading logic has completely shifted to “expectations of monetary policy tightening.”

The decision caused huge shock immediately before and after the announcement. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards issued an emergency warning, announcing that it planned to attack oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar in the next few hours, and urged residents in the affected areas to evacuate.

This heralds the risk of a comprehensive escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, threatening oil supplies in the Strait of Hormuz.

Why does the price of gold fall instead of rising? The main reason is that this serious geopolitical risk is transmitted through rising oil prices, pushing up inflation expectations and forcing the Federal Reserve to adopt tightening monetary policy.

If oil facilities are attacked, oil prices could rise to $150 a barrel or even higher, which would force the Federal Reserve not only to not cut interest rates, but to reconsider raising them.

Therefore, in the short term, geopolitical risks have become a factor supporting gold prices, prompting the Federal Reserve to take a more hawkish stance.

Q: From a technical analysis perspective, what is the current situation with gold prices around $4,880?

Answer: The current market situation can be summarized as “the bulls have lost their foothold and the trend has completely turned bearish”.

On the four-hour and below timeframe: Price action shows a sharp decline, with each bounce being quickly subdued, indicating strong downward momentum. Technical support not mentioned below must determine new lows.

Main price levels:

Support: $4850-$4830, $4800, $4750-4780

Resistance levels: $4900-4910, $4950-4970, $5000

Suggested strategies:

Strategy 1: Sell when the price rises (trend following strategy)

Entry point: focus on the $4900-4920 area. If gold prices rebound to this range and show signs of stopping the decline, a small sell position can be opened.

Target price: around $4850-4830; if it breaks through this range, the target price is $4,800.

Stop Loss: Set above $4,950.

If gold prices fall below $4,830, a small sell position can be opened with a price target between $4,800 and $4,750. If the price unexpectedly rises above $4,950, positions should be closed and a wait-and-see approach is recommended until the situation becomes clearer.

Q: What should we focus on next?

A: The most important thing tonight is not over yet. We must pay close attention to Powell’s every statement on inflation and the situation in the Middle East. Any small change can cause large fluctuations in the market.

Latest developments in the Middle East: Warnings that Iran could launch an attack “in the coming hours” are set to be confirmed in the biggest story of the night. In the event of an attack, oil prices will rise and gold prices may temporarily recover from excessive losses (due to safe-haven demand), but following this recovery, inflation expectations are likely to continue to exert downward pressure.

Bears are likely to remain bearish unless they launch an attack.

$4880 isn’t the lowest price, it’s just a number that’s going down. Good luck!