XAUUSD by Lana_M2 — TradingView

Gold has shown a tentative recovery in the short term, but the overall structure is still tilted towards sellers. The current uptrend seems more like a retest of the resistance area than the start of a strong upward reversal.

basic background

This week, the Fed is likely to take a more dovish tone without being overtly dovish.
Even as policymakers avoid signaling an imminent rate cut, markets are still looking for a clearer path for monetary policy. This supports the dollar, especially if Fed officials continue to resist expectations of strong easing policy.

For gold, this creates a complex backdrop. Safe-haven demand still provided some support, but dollar strength still limited any significant gains. In the short term, this makes it easy for gold prices to rise, but may fail at resistance levels.

Technical architecture of H1 framework
Overall structure

On the first half chart, XAUUSD is still moving within a broader bearish structure after failing to sustain previous recovery attempts. Prices are still trading below the downtrend line, which continues to serve as the main guide for the trend.

The recent rebound from lower territory suggests that buyers remain active near support levels, but this recovery is not enough to change the overall structure. So far, this move appears to be just a technical bounce in a downtrend.

5,070 – 5,090: FVG resistance and trend line

The most noteworthy upside area is 5,070 – 5,090 points.

This area combines:

FVG resistor

downtrend line

and potential resale areas based on the current structure.

If price continues to move higher toward this area but fails to significantly break out of it, the market may form new lower highs before resuming its decline.

5,030 – 5,000: Short-term reaction zone

After the recent bearish wave, the price is currently trying to stabilize above the 5,030 – 5,000 area. This area acts as short-term support, allowing for an attempted recovery.

As long as the market remains above this area, a retest of the trendline is possible. But this support remains temporary unless buyers are able to reclaim the overhead resistance area.

4,950 – 4,960: Next lower target

If gold prices are rejected by the FVG area and trendline, the next downside target is around 4,950 – 4,960.

This area represents the lower boundary of the current structure and is a prime target for sellers if they regain control after a rebound.

What does the order flow indicate?

Current order flow suggests that buyers are only creating a short-term rally, while sellers remain in control of the larger structure.

Now:

Buyers are trying to recover from the lower range

Sellers still control the larger structure below the downtrend line

The 5,070-5,090 point area is still the key area that determines whether this rebound can fail.

This supports the idea that any rise is likely to be temporary unless the price can break through the resistance with stronger momentum.

Trading scenario
Scenario 1: Bounce towards the trendline, then completely down

If gold prices continue to recover towards 5,070 – 5,090 and show clear bearish rejection, the market may return to the downside again in line with the bearish structure.

Entry Points: 5,070 – 5,090, when a clear bearish rejection occurs
Stop Loss: Above 5,110
Target 1: 5,030
Goal 2: 5,000
Target 3: 4,950 – 4,960

Scenario 2: Only buy short-term at current support levels

If prices continue to hold above current levels and buying momentum improves, gold prices may extend their rally toward the FVG/trendline area.

Entry Point: Near 5,020 – 5,030, Bullish Confirmation
Stop loss: below 4995
Target 1: 5,070
Target 2: 5,090

This is just a short-term rebound situation. As for the main trend, the preference is still to sell at resistance levels.

Scenario 3: Bearish Breakout of Current Range

If gold fails to hold current support and break below before reaching the trendline retest area, the decline could resume immediately.

Entry: Below 5,000 after confirmed breakout
Stop loss: break above the support level
Target 1: 4,960
Goal 2: Lower support levels if selling pressure intensifies

Critical level of monitoring

5,020 – 5,030 → short-term support
5,070 – 5,090 → FVG Resistance + Trendline
5,110 → Sell scenario cancellation level
4,950 – 4,960 → Next downside target

in conclusion

Gold may be able to rebound slightly from current levels, but the overall structure of the H1 framework remains bearish as long as the price breaks below the downtrend line. The current preferred scenario is a rise to 5,070-5,090 points before selling pressure returns.

Currently, buying is only suitable for short-term trading, while selling remains the preferred trend if the price shows weakness at trendline resistance.

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