Bitcoin’s weekly relative strength index (RSI) hits new lows

Bitcoin prices bottomed out in June 2022, marking the end of the previous traditional bear market. The final sale price was $17,625. That same month, the RSI bottomed and began its long-term recovery.

» Note that the same reading, a double bottom, was recorded in February 2026 compared to June 2022. This is the lowest level this indicator has ever reached.

Following the June 2022 lows, Bitcoin staged a minor rally that lasted nine weeks. The price rose from $17,625 to a high of $25,204, a 43% increase.

If a similar situation occurs in 2026, our price will be $85,800 with a date of April 6, 2026. This would be the lowest expected upside based on past performance and is a repeat of what happened in 2022.

The November 2022 low resulted in a price of $15,484, a decrease of 12.15%. The campaign lasted 98 days.

If we repeat something similar in this cycle (which is highly doubtful), we expect the price of Bitcoin to fall to $52,710 during the week of July 13, 2026. This is just speculation, but if Bitcoin moves exactly as it did during the last down cycle, this is what it will be.

Looking back at history, Bitcoin never moves exactly the same in all bull and bear markets.

The rising cycle in 2017 was a linear rise.
» The 2021 bull cycle experienced a stretch, followed by a sharp decline, then another stretch, and then a double top.

The upcycle through 2025 forms a stepped pattern. First there is growth, then a sideways oscillation, then another growth, then a sideways oscillation until finally the range reaches a triple top.

All down cycles experience wild swings.

If Bitcoin behaves the same way…

» The BTCUSDT currency pair is ready to move higher. Be prepared for all scenarios. Anything is possible and the market is bullish at the moment.

Unless Bitcoin fails to make higher highs, we don’t expect a lower bottom in the coming months. This is neither a requirement nor a necessity. We’re going up.