Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
Brian XAUUSD – Gold under pressure
Gold ended the week on the defensive, with price action reflecting a clear loss of short-term momentum. A drop of about 0.70% on Friday pushed XAUUSD to a weekly loss of more than 2%, indicating that buyers are still working to regain control.
From a macro perspective, the main pressure is the US dollar. Demand for the U.S. dollar remains strong as investors continue to view the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset of choice amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. At the same time, the oil shock caused by the dispute is reigniting concerns about inflation and making markets cautious about how quickly the Federal Reserve can ease policy.
In the medium term, gold has one factor supporting it: weaker-than-expected U.S. economic growth data increases the likelihood of a rate cut in 2026. However, this support currently does not appear to be enough to offset the immediate impact of a stronger dollar and defensive market position.
Technical structure
On the 4-hour chart, gold prices failed to remain above the upper resistance level and are currently in a correction phase. Prices are currently trending downward within a clear regional structure.
The market is currently below the POC test/sale zone, which means price gains remain at risk unless price can reclaim this zone with strong acceptance. As long as XAUUSD remains below this resistance range, an upward move should be considered a correction rather than a trend change.
Below current prices, the most important support is the major POC + Fibonacci crossover area, which also coincides with a confirmed buy zone. This is the first area buyers can expect to really enter. If the price reaches this area and holds there, a technical rebound is possible.
If this support fails, the next magnet to fall is the low value area, which represents a deeper value area within the existing structure. A breakout of this area would confirm that sellers are still in control and that the market is extending towards less liquidity.
critical level
Sell Zone/POC Test: Ceiling Resistance and Key Supply Constraints
Major POC + Fibonacci Cross: Major Support for the Buy Zone
Low Value Area: Deep value support, if the structure breaks down, the next target will be lower
Trading scenario
Scenario 1: Sell on rallies in the selling zone
As long as the dollar continues to strengthen, these remain the preferred settings.
Log in:
Look for sell trades only when the price moves back into the sell zone and shows clear rejection.
Stop loss:
Above the high of the rejection candle or above the sell zone structure.
Taking profits:
TP1: Main POC area + Fibonacci crossover area
TP2: If the momentum extends downward, it is a low value area
This is the cleanest setup as it fits the current negative short-term structure.
Scenario 2: Main POC area + Fibonacci area buying reaction
This is the first area where a technical rebound may develop.
Log in:
Wait until price tests the key POC + Fibonacci crossover area and shows a clear consolidation or bullish reaction before considering entering a long trade.
Stop loss:
Below the support area and below the local low.
Taking profits:
TP1: Return to the middle/current value area
TP2: Retest the above sell area
This is a reaction trade, not a confirmed trend reversal, unless price can later reclaim the overhead resistance area.
Scenario 3: Breaking into low-value areas
This is to expand the risk if support fails.
Log in:
If the price falls below the main POC + Fibonacci area and fails to recover on retest, the sell trade becomes effective.
Stop loss:
After a failed retest, the upper support level has been broken.
Taking profits:
TP1: Low value area
TP2: Only by maintaining strong momentum through deep value can we go further
This situation confirms the continuation of the downward trend and suggests that the market is accepting lower prices.
final look
The short-term trend remains cautious to the downside as gold prices trade below the overhead selling zone. The main battleground is the support gathering below current prices. If buyers continue to defend it, gold prices may rebound. If not, the path is open to low-value areas.
Currently, the professional approach is simple: sell weakness at resistance, buy only on confirmed support reactions, and avoid trading in the middle of the range.
Follow to stay informed and share business knowledge.
