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Beware of gold falsely breaking through $5,200 level
Today’s rebound = Trump stated that “the war is almost over” → Oil prices fell → Inflation concerns eased → The U.S. dollar fell → Gold rebounded
1️⃣Trump said that the military operation against Iran is “effectively over”, far exceeding the 4 to 5 weeks he previously expected.
2️⃣ He will lift some oil sanctions on Iran to stabilize oil prices.
These two statements directly led to a sharp decline in global oil prices, with Brent crude oil falling more than 20% from its highest level during the day.
Oil prices fell → Inflation expectations fell → Market concerns about the Fed raising interest rates decreased → Pressure on gold decreased.
At the same time, funds flowed from the U.S. dollar to gold.
Today is the eleventh day of military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran.
Current situation: Israeli air strikes on multiple Iranian military facilities continue.
Iran launched its 32nd retaliatory attack using heavy missiles.
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, forcing many oil-producing countries to cut output.
Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei was sworn in.
Despite Trump’s signals of de-escalation, shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has yet to resume, a major factor affecting oil prices and inflation expectations.
Concerns about energy supplies will persist as long as the strait remains closed.
Main price levels:
Resistance rising:
The first resistance level: 5215-5220 area
Second resistance: near 5250
Key resistance level: 5300 (psychological level)
If the price falls below 5300: Next target is 5350-5400
Implementation support:
First support: 5180-5200 area
Strong support: 5140-5150 area
Basic support: 5100 (psychological level)
If the price falls below 5100: The next support level is 5050-5080, followed by the key level of 5000.
Trading strategy:
Buy on dips: Wait for the price to return to the 51640-5180 area and stabilize before gradually starting to build long positions.
Stop loss orders are set below 5100.
Target price: 5200-5250. Gold is currently experiencing a turning point, with the outcome of the Iraq War being a major factor.
Inflation expectations are good for gold prices, but rising inflation may delay the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut plan, which is a negative factor for gold prices.
In the short term, the timing of interest rate cuts is more important than the direction of interest rate cuts.
