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3.9 Gold Analysis
Market review:
Spot gold opened near US$5,180 per ounce today and briefly rose to US$5,197, showing signs of continued recovery after the release of non-agricultural data on Friday. However, the market encountered resistance at the $5,200 mark, and then reversed its trend, breaking through multiple marks such as $5,150 and $5,100, reaching as low as $5,014.51 per ounce, with a daily decline of more than 3%.
Technical analysis: The long and short signals are mixed, and short-term downward pressure is increasing.
Daily chart: testing key support levels.
From the daily chart, gold prices closed at $5,174 last week, down 2% for the week, the first weekly decline in five weeks. A fall below the $5,100 level in today’s trading session weakened the technical landscape.
Moving average system: The price of gold is currently facing downward pressure below the five-day moving average (around $5,150), and the moving average is trending downward, indicating a trend of breaking through the 20-day moving average.
MACD indicator: The daily fast and slow MACD lines have both crossed below the zero line, and the kinetic energy column continues to expand, indicating that the downward momentum has strengthened.
support and resistance levels
Short-term support: $5,000 (psychological level that creates recurring resistance)
Key support level: $4960-4950
Short-term resistance level: $5110-5120
Key resistance: $5180-5200 area
This week’s trends and trading strategies
Trend: Downward pressure still exists, but the decline is limited.
Amid fierce competition between buyers and sellers, gold prices are expected to continue to find trends. The main influencing factors remain the interaction between the situation in the Middle East, energy prices and monetary policy expectations.
Trading strategy (Monday to Wednesday): Buy when prices are low (near support) and sell when prices are high (near resistance).
Trading strategy for Thursday and Friday: If the gold price falls below $5,000, it is recommended to open long positions in batches below $5,000 (the use of high leverage requires precise position building).
The medium-term outlook for gold prices remains optimistic, and a sharp short-term correction is not surprising. Given these strong macroeconomic and structural factors, declines tend to attract new buying, resuming the overall upward trend.
In short, the gold market is currently in a fierce battle between “expanding geopolitical risks” and “reassessment of macroeconomic variables.” In the short term, energy price inflation dominates the market, with US dollar appreciation and expectations of interest rate cuts creating dual pressures. Technical indicators are also tilted downward, and the $5,000 mark is facing a severe test.
However, in the medium to long term, global central banks continue to buy gold, abandon the trend of the US dollar, and the US fiscal deficit problem remains unchanged. This round of decline is a natural adjustment in the bull market. For investors, the current market has entered a period of high volatility, and chasing highs and lows carries huge risks. It is recommended to operate with caution this week and focus on the $5,000 level. If this level holds, it can be considered a strategic entry point; if it falls, support will need to be monitored further. Employing rigorous risk management and thoughtful position sizing is the key to weathering market volatility and achieving long-term success.
